Regulatory intelligence for the US prediction markets industry
SiaPredict is built by Sia to make sense of a regulatory landscape that changes by the week: CFTC rulemaking, state cease-and-desist orders, court rulings, and licensing moves across Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, DraftKings, and every other operator in the space. This dashboard centralizes that activity so compliance, legal, and strategy teams can track it in one place instead of piecing it together from dozens of scattered sources.
Regulatory FeedEvery CFTC, SEC, and state action, in one stream.Agency TrackerCFTC, SEC, and state activity, tracked over time.Licensing TrackerDCM, SEF, FCM, and no-action filings, end to end.Legal & EnforcementEnforcement actions and lawsuits, by category and status.SiaPredict IntelligenceRisk-scored profiles and Sia Insights on every major operator.NewsletterA ranked daily or weekly briefing, human-reviewed.
Active updates (7d)
1
75%vs. prior 7d
High-severity open items
6
Critical or high
Licensing applications tracked
47
DCM, SEF, FCM, and no-action
Enforcement actions (30d)
1
Federal + state
Top 5 this week
View feed Licensing pipeline snapshot
Open tracker | Applicant | Type | Status | Most Recent News |
|---|---|---|---|
| XCHG 365 LLC | FCM | Submitted | Oct 19, 2026 |
| Apex Derivatives LLC | FCM | Withdrawn | Oct 19, 2026 |
| TLC Technologies Inc (Backpack Exchange) | FCM | Submitted | Oct 19, 2026 |
| Hypestrat Markets LLC | FCM | Submitted | Oct 19, 2026 |
| LiquidityTech Markets LLC | FCM | Submitted | Oct 19, 2026 |
Latest enforcement
View all Other StateOct 28
KalshiEX LLC; Tarek Mansour; Luana Lopes Lara
Utah Attorney General Derek Brown filed criminal charges against KalshiEX and co-founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara for allegedly promoting illegal online gambling, including wagers reportedly placed by an undercover agent. Trade-press reports differ on the count breakdown (CoinDesk reports 14 counts, one a felony pattern-of-unlawful-activity charge; SBC Americas reports 13 felony charges) and do not name the court; the charging document is linked from The Block but was not machine-readable here. Kalshi called the charges an overreach and said it expects to resolve the matter in court. Second state criminal prosecution of Kalshi after Arizona (enf-az-ag-criminal), and the first to name its executives.
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Other StateOct 5
Polymarket; Novig; Underdog; Coinbase; ProphetX; Robinhood; Gemini Titan; Webull; Plus500; Moomoo Financial
The Ohio Casino Control Commission sent cease-and-desist notices to ten prediction-market operators, directing each to stop offering sports event contracts to Ohio residents by October 16, 2026 and warning of civil penalties and other legal remedies for non-compliance. The notices follow the Sixth Circuit's September 25 ruling against Kalshi on federal preemption.
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Other StateSep 16
KalshiEX LLC; QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket; Crypto.com Derivatives NA; Novig; Underdog Exchange DCM, Inc.; Robinhood Derivatives LLC
Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway issued cease-and-desist letters to six prediction-market operators, giving each 30 days from September 16, 2026 to stop offering sports event contracts to Missouri residents or obtain a license from the Missouri Gaming Commission. Hanaway said the operators' fee-based structure does not change the underlying activity's classification as unlicensed sports wagering under Missouri law, and said she expects the companies to raise a federal-preemption defense; absent a settlement, her office intends to sue.
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Other StateSep 10
Polymarket; Coinbase; Crypto.com; Robinhood; ProphetX; Novig; Webull; Gemini; Underdog Predict
Connecticut's Department of Consumer Protection issued cease-and-desist orders to nine prediction-market operators, directing each to stop offering sports event contracts to Connecticut residents and to let existing customers withdraw funds, alongside nearly 30 subpoenas to gaming-service providers and media organizations seeking information on how the platforms operate and advertise. Commissioner Bryan Cafferelli said the platforms lack consumer protections and do not adhere to the state's laws, regulations, or technical standards. It is a larger escalation of the state's December 2025 three-operator cease-and-desist (enf-ct-dcp-triple), which named Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com and remains the subject of ongoing litigation.
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SiaPredict Daily · Nov 2, 2026
Utah's fight over Kalshi has moved to a federal status conference on November 6. Polymarket's breach cleanup produced a detailed refund and remediation picture, while Kalshi's $1 billion raise at a $40 billion valuation shows capital is still flowing despite state enforcement pressure.
- Federal judge sets November 6 status conference in CFTC suit against Utah
- Polymarket details refunds and remediation after third-party script compromise
- Kalshi raises $1 billion Series G at $40 billion valuation
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