SIA

Regulatory intelligence for the US prediction markets industry

SiaPredict is built by Sia to make sense of a regulatory landscape that changes by the week: CFTC rulemaking, state cease-and-desist orders, court rulings, and licensing moves across Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, DraftKings, and every other operator in the space. This dashboard centralizes that activity so compliance, legal, and strategy teams can track it in one place instead of piecing it together from dozens of scattered sources.

Regulatory FeedEvery CFTC, SEC, and state action, in one stream.Agency TrackerCFTC, SEC, and state activity, tracked over time.Licensing TrackerDCM, SEF, FCM, and no-action filings, end to end.Legal & EnforcementEnforcement actions and lawsuits, by category and status.CompetitorsRisk-scored profiles for every major operator.NewsletterA ranked daily or weekly briefing, AI-drafted and reviewed.
Active updates (7d)
5
44%vs. prior 7d
High-severity open items
34
Critical or high
Licensing applications tracked
22
DCM, SEF, FCM, and no-action
Enforcement actions (30d)
1
Federal + state
Top 5 this week
View feed
Licensing pipeline snapshot
Open tracker
ApplicantTypeStatusUpdated
Fanatics Markets (via acquisition of Water Street Labs / CX Clearinghouse)DCMApprovedJul 27, 2026
DraftKings PredictionsFCMApprovedJul 14, 2026
PM Derivatives LLC (Polymarket affiliate, "Coming Home GBA")FCMSubmittedJul 3, 2026
Ludlow Exchange LLC (Novig affiliate)DCMApprovedJun 16, 2026
ProphetXDCMApprovedJun 11, 2026
Latest enforcement
View all
CFTCJul 31
George Santos (former US Representative, NY-3)
The CFTC settled manipulative-trading charges against George Santos, ordering disgorgement of $17,569.98, a $17,500 civil penalty, and a three-year trading ban, resolving the investigation opened after the June 2, 2026 report (enf-doj-santos). The CFTC found Santos manipulated the price of a Kalshi "Who will attend the State of the Union?" event contract between February 12-25, 2026 by posting misleading statements about his attendance plans while holding opposing positions.
$35,070
CFTCJun 2
George Santos (former US Representative, NY-3)
The Department of Justice opened an investigation into former Rep. George Santos (R-NY) for alleged insider trading on Kalshi, as reported by NPR on June 2, 2026. Santos allegedly posted on X that he planned to attend the State of the Union address, driving up related Kalshi contract odds, then posted a message while Trump was speaking that caused those odds to collapse — netting tens of thousands of dollars in profit. Kalshi detected the suspicious trades, froze Santos's account, and referred the matter to both the CFTC and DOJ, both of which opened investigations. No formal charges had been filed as of the reporting date.
—
Other StateMay 13
Prediction-market operators (industry-wide, future enforcement)
Minnesota's omnibus public safety bill (SF 4760), including a prediction-markets ban that makes organizing such markets a felony, passed Senate 57-9 and House 100-32 and was sent to Gov. Walz. Grants state regulators authority to issue cease-and-desist orders and seek injunctions; effective Aug. 1, 2026. Minnesota would be the first US state to statutorily outlaw prediction-market exchanges; CFTC suit reportedly under consideration.
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CFTCApr 23
Gannon Ken Van Dyke (US Army Special Forces sergeant)
CFTC filed civil complaint (PR 9217-26) in SDNY alleging Van Dyke used classified non-public information about Operation Absolute Resolve (the operation to capture former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro) to buy more than 436,000 "Yes" shares on Polymarket's "Maduro Out by January 31, 2026?" contract, netting over $404,000. First CFTC insider-trading enforcement action involving an event contract. SDNY unsealed a parallel criminal indictment the same day.
$404,000
SiaPredict Weekly · Aug 6, 2026

A federal judge in Utah handed Kalshi its first final loss in the nationwide state-preemption fight, rejecting every CEA argument and setting up a Tenth Circuit appeal. The ruling lands alongside a wave of federal scrutiny, from a CFTC settlement with George Santos to a Senate push against wildfire contracts, even as capital keeps flowing into the sector with Polymarket reportedly in talks for a $20 billion-plus valuation.

  • Federal judge grants Utah summary judgment against Kalshi, rejecting CEA preemption
  • CFTC settles manipulative-trading charges against George Santos over Kalshi contract
  • Eight Senate Democrats press CFTC to bar wildfire event contracts
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