About SiaPredict
Regulatory intelligence for the US prediction-markets industry, built by Sia.
Why this exists
US prediction markets are regulated by no single authority. Event contracts sit with the CFTC under the Commodity Exchange Act, outcome-linked tokens draw SEC attention, and state gaming boards and attorneys general assert their own jurisdiction under state gambling and consumer-protection statutes. The result is a landscape where a single operator can face a federal designation process, a dozen state cease-and-desist orders, and active preemption litigation at the same time.
Compliance, legal, and strategy teams working in this sector spend a disproportionate share of their time simply assembling the picture from scattered sources: agency press rooms, court dockets, registration databases, and trade press. SiaPredict centralizes that activity so the assembly work is already done.
What it covers
Regulatory feed
Every CFTC, SEC, and state action affecting US prediction markets, in one chronological stream, filterable by agency, topic, and severity.
Licensing tracker
DCM, SEF, FCM, and no-action applications, with filing dates, current stage, and the regulatory activity behind each move.
Legal and enforcement
Enforcement actions and litigation, including the state preemption suits, organized by defendant, category, and status.
Operator profiles
Licensing posture and jurisdiction strategy for each tracked operator, with a comparative regulatory risk score.
Newsletter
A ranked briefing on the sector's top developments, daily or weekly, every item sourced and reviewed before it is sent.
Training
Short, practitioner-focused courses on event-contract regulation, state gambling law, and licensing pathways.
Who builds it
SiaPredict is built and maintained by Sia, a management consulting firm whose regulatory and compliance practice advises financial-services and gaming clients on supervisory expectations, licensing, and control frameworks. The platform grew out of the research the practice was already doing for client work in this sector.
Coverage is compiled with AI assistance from public sources and reviewed by the team before publication. The methodology page sets out the sources, the review steps, and the limits of what the scoring and classifications mean.
Get in touch
Corrections, coverage gaps, and questions about the underlying research are all welcome. Use the contact button in the corner of any page, or subscribe to the briefing to follow the sector week to week.
Scoring is illustrative and based on public information. SiaPredict does not provide legal advice.