Methodology and Editorial Policy
Where the coverage comes from, how it is reviewed, and what it does not claim to be.
In short
Every tracker entry traces to a public primary document. Drafting is AI-assisted. Nothing reaches a public page without a person reviewing it against that source first. Risk scores are comparative editorial judgments, not measurements.
Sources monitored
Collection runs against agency feeds, court APIs, and registration databases on a daily cycle, supplemented by targeted research where a source publishes no machine-readable feed.
Federal regulators
- CFTC press releases, speeches, and testimony
- SEC press releases and public statements
- Federal Register notices and comment dockets
Courts
- Federal dockets via the CourtListener RECAP API, tracked by keyword for new prediction-market litigation
- Published opinions and orders in the preemption and enforcement cases
Registration and licensing
- NFA BASIC, for Futures Commission Merchant registration activity
- CFTC registers of Designated Contract Markets and Swap Execution Facilities
State authorities
- Gaming boards and commissions, including New Jersey, Nevada, Ohio, Maryland, New York, and Illinois
- Attorney general offices in the states with active proceedings
- State consumer-protection and securities regulators
Trade press
- Sector reporting, used to surface developments and locate primary documents, never as the sole basis for a tracker entry
How an item becomes a page
- 1Collection. Automated monitoring surfaces candidate items from the sources above and flags anything that cannot be matched to an existing tracker entry rather than dropping it.
- 2Verification against the primary document. An item is only recorded once the underlying order, filing, docket entry, or registration record has been located. Trade-press reporting can point to a development; it does not substitute for the document.
- 3Classification. Each item is assigned an agency, a topic, and a severity. These are editorial categories applied for filtering and comparison, not labels used by the regulators themselves.
- 4Drafting with AI assistance. Summaries and analysis are drafted with AI assistance, working from the source documents.
- 5Human review before publication. A person reviews each item against its source before it is published. The newsletter and the blog both run through an explicit review-and-approve step rather than publishing automatically.
What the risk scores mean
The regulatory risk score on each operator profile is a comparative editorial judgment on a 0 to 100 scale, reflecting licensing posture, exposure to active proceedings, and jurisdiction strategy as visible in public information.
It is not a probability, a credit assessment, a compliance rating, or a prediction of any outcome. It is not produced by a validated model, and it should not be used as an input to an investment, credit, or underwriting decision. Two operators with the same score are not equivalent; the score is a starting point for reading the profile, not a substitute for it.
Corrections
Regulatory records get amended, dockets move, and classifications can be wrong. If something on the platform does not match the primary source, tell us through the contact button on any page and include the document. Corrections are made to the underlying entry so the trackers and any future briefing reflect the fix.
Scope and limits
- Coverage is US-focused. Non-US regimes are only noted where they bear directly on a US proceeding.
- Nothing on the platform is legal, investment, or tax advice, and reading it creates no advisory relationship.
- Classifications, severities, and scores are interpretive. Where a page states a legal conclusion, that conclusion belongs to the cited court, regulator, or filing, not to Sia.
- Coverage is not exhaustive. State-level activity in particular moves faster than any monitoring cycle can guarantee to capture in full.
Scoring is illustrative and based on public information. SiaPredict does not provide legal advice.