Hyperliquid (HIP-4)

Decentralized (Hyperliquid Foundation)

BTC Outcome MarketsPermissionless Event Markets (mid-June rollout)Crypto Perpetual Futures

Decentralized derivatives protocol that launched prediction markets in May 2026 via HIP-4.
Its first BTC outcome market traded 6.05M contracts on day one, achieving 3x the volume of equivalent Kalshi/Polymarket markets in initial trading.
A direct competitive threat to onshore DCMs for crypto-affinity flow.
On July 20, 2026, opened HIP-4 to any developer who stakes 500,000 HYPE tokens (~$31.7M, locked six months and slashable for bad markets), letting outside builders deploy their own permissionless prediction markets and earn up to 50% of trading fees — framed explicitly as a challenge to Polymarket.

Regulatory risk score

Licensing

DCM: Unregulated (offshore / on-chain)

SEF: N/A

State coverage: Not US-licensed; available via VPN

Jurisdiction strategy

Crypto-native venue activated the HIP-4 prediction-market protocol on mainnet May 2, 2026 with a zero open-fee structure.
Full permissionless deployment was slated for mid-June to coincide with the FIFA World Cup.
Operates outside the US regulatory perimeter; accessible to US residents via VPN, creating a regulatory-arbitrage risk that may draw CFTC enforcement attention.
Its policy arm (Hyperliquid Policy Center) engaged the CFTC's rulemaking process directly for the first time, filing a joint comment letter with Multicoin Capital (July 27) backing exclusive CFTC federal jurisdiction over event contracts.

No enforcement actions matching this operator by name.

AI-generated analysis from broader market, trading, and industry-press signals — not a primary regulatory source and not legal advice.

Aug 3, 2026hip-4-testnetpermissionlessregulatory-gap
Hyperliquid moved its HIP-4 permissionless-deployment feature from proposal to practice on July 31, confirming an initial testnet implementation that lets any developer deploy an outcome market, with the team flagging configurable fees and more templates before a mainnet rollout. The step-by-step rollout (announced July 20, live on testnet July 31) suggests Hyperliquid is deliberately pacing the permissionless model rather than rushing it to mainnet, even as it continues to operate entirely outside the CFTC-regulated perimeter governing every DCM on this platform.
Jul 31, 2026hip-4permissionlessregulatory-gap
Hyperliquid's July 20 HIP-4 upgrade proposal would let any developer launch a prediction market by staking 500,000 HYPE, with market creators earning up to 50% of trading fees — a permissionless, validator-governed model with no analog among the CFTC-regulated DCMs on this list, and one US regulators have not yet had to confront directly.

Scoring is illustrative and based on public information. SiaPredict does not provide legal advice.