Polymarket
- Crypto-settled prediction marketplace operating under CFTC DCM authority since November 2025.
- Launched leveraged perpetual futures April 21, 2026 and a V2 exchange upgrade (pUSD collateral) April 28.
- April volume dropped 9%, its first decline in 8 months.
- Partnered with Chainalysis for on-chain surveillance (April 30).
- A May 2026 WSJ investigation found 60% of UMA oracle voters linked to Polymarket accounts, with conflicts of interest in more than 300 disputes — a material operational-integrity concern.
- On June 2, 2026, closed the first institutional on-chain block trade in prediction-market history: FalconX and Anera Labs executed a six-figure transaction on the Ornn Compute Price Index (Nvidia H100 GPU rental pricing); FalconX will serve as dedicated market maker for future institutional block trades.
- Partnered with Splash Sports (announced June 18, 2026) to launch the world's largest NFL survivor contest — a $21M guaranteed prize pool for the 2026 season — distributed to Splash's ~2M users via a CFTC-registered introducing-broker integration launching July/August 2026.
- On July 27, 2026, a federal court blocked Minnesota's statutory prediction-market ban in a suit Polymarket brought alongside Kalshi and the CFTC.
- A 44-state AG coalition's July 28 comment letter to the CFTC, arguing sports-contract regulation belongs to the states, cuts directly against Polymarket's own federal-preemption theory.
- A compromised frontend vendor let attackers drain an estimated $2.9-3.1M from at least 11 user wallets around June 25-26, Polymarket's second security incident in two months.
- On August 4, 2026, Bloomberg reported Polymarket is in early talks to raise roughly $1B at a valuation exceeding $20B, more than double its October 2025 mark.
Licensing
- Operates a CFTC-regulated DCM via its QCX LLC acquisition; reentered the US market in December 2025.
- Pivoting from binary-only events into leveraged perpetual futures (April 2026).
- Closed its April 2026 round at a $15B valuation (D.E. Shaw, G Squared, plus a $600M ICE strategic investment); now in early talks to raise roughly $1B at a valuation exceeding $20B (Bloomberg, Aug 4), still unclosed and trailing Kalshi's $22B/~$40B-target trajectory.
- Now the subject of a confirmed CFTC investigation into its marketing practices (opened after Senate pressure, June 2026) and a D.C. consumer-fraud suit over paid-influencer campaigns (June 26).
- Its affiliate PM Derivatives LLC filed for NFA registration July 3 as a first step toward offering margin trading, mirroring Kalshi's Kinetic Markets structure.
- Filed its own federal preemption suit against New Mexico (June 30) after the state declined to pause enforcement pending the related Kalshi case.
- Named in the CFTC's new vertical-integration conflict-of-interest NPRM (July 30).
- Also named alongside Kalshi in an August 3 Senate Democrat letter pressing the CFTC to bar wildfire-outcome event contracts — a new, so-far low-materiality regulatory front rather than a targeted action against Polymarket specifically.
Regulatory history
Recent activity
AI Insights
AI-generated analysis from broader market, trading, and industry-press signals — not a primary regulatory source and not legal advice.
- Aug 4, 2026volumepolymarket-usworld-cup
July data published August 3 shows a split emerging inside the Polymarket brand: the offshore Polymarket platform's volume fell 26% month-over-month to $7.9B as World Cup activity cooled, while the CFTC-regulated Polymarket US grew 54% to $5B, narrowing the gap between the two. If that trajectory holds, Polymarket's US entity looks increasingly like the more durable growth engine, while the original offshore platform's swings track more tightly to single large events.
- Jul 31, 2026credibilityworld-cupmanipulation-risk
Polymarket's July 29 launch of the Polymarket Institute, a research initiative on forecast quality and resolution integrity, reads as a deliberate credibility play following the May UMA-oracle conflict-of-interest reporting. Its World Cup Winner contract alone traded nearly $4B by July 6 — edging out its 2024 US presidential contract as the platform's largest single market to date — even as a July 29 Bloomberg piece flagged manipulation vulnerability across both Kalshi's and Polymarket's political contracts.
Scoring is illustrative and based on public information. SiaPredict does not provide legal advice.