PredictIt
Academic-affiliated political prediction market run with Victoria University of Wellington.
Regulatory posture
- Operating under a CFTC no-action letter originally issued for academic research.
- Operates under a contested CFTC no-action letter; its future depends on ongoing Fifth Circuit litigation and CFTC posture.
- That status has been challenged and litigated since 2022.
Licensing
- No-action
- Active (litigated)
- DCM
- N/A
- State coverage
- Limited
Filings on the tracker (1)
Licensing Tracker- No-ActionVictoria University of Wellington (PredictIt)ApprovedSep 5, 2025
Products
Development timeline
Dated developments compiled for this operator, newest first. Select an entry for the full detail.
- September 23, 2026
Eliminated withdrawal fees, moved to a profit-only fee structure
PredictIt eliminated its 5% withdrawal fee on September 23, 2026 and now charges traders only on profitable positions, while offering one fee-free credit-card deposit per user up to $1,000. Co-founder John Aristotle Phillips said "prediction markets work best when participation is accessible."
Regulatory history
No enforcement actions matching this operator by name.
Recent activity
Sia Insights
Sia's analysis from broader market, trading, and industry-press signals. Not a primary regulatory source and not legal advice.
- Sep 24, 2026predictitfeesproductpolitical-markets
PredictIt's September 23 move to drop its 5% withdrawal fee and charge only on profitable trades is a pricing-based bid to stay relevant as Kalshi, Polymarket, and sportsbook-linked entrants scale sports and crypto volume far beyond PredictIt's academic-research niche. The change follows its 2025 CFTC settlement that raised the single-contract cap from $850 to $3,500 and removed the 5,000-trader-per-market limit, but PredictIt's political-only product mix and modest scale mean cost competitiveness alone is unlikely to close the gap with venues now measuring monthly volume in the tens of billions.
- Aug 25, 2026predictitsupreme-courtlitigationcftc
PredictIt Chief Strategy Officer Flip Pidot said on August 21 that the sprawling state-vs-CFTC prediction-market litigation could reach the Supreme Court by mid-2027, pointing to a likely circuit split as soon as November 2026 between the Third Circuit's pro-preemption ruling and more skeptical Sixth and Ninth Circuit panels. Pidot framed the standoff, a federal regulator opposed by a supermajority of state attorneys general, as exactly the kind of high-stakes intergovernmental conflict that draws Supreme Court attention, a read that bears on how long every operator in this sector, PredictIt included, has to keep operating under a patchwork of conflicting state and federal rulings.
- Jul 31, 2026niche-positioningno-action-letter
PredictIt remains structurally static: still capped at $850 per market with 5%/10% fees, operating under the PMRC's CFTC no-action letter rather than a DCM license. Its academic-research positioning and steady mentions in cross-platform arbitrage trackers alongside Kalshi and Polymarket increasingly look like the platform's ceiling rather than a transitional phase toward broader licensing.
Scoring is illustrative and based on public information. SiaPredict does not provide legal advice.