Robinhood Derivatives / Rothera
Retail brokerage that began offering event contracts through partner exchanges in 2024.
Regulatory posture
- Pivoting from Kalshi reseller to operator of its own CFTC-licensed DCM via Rothera (Robinhood/Susquehanna/MIAX JV, 45/45/10), which closed in January 2026.
- Rothera contributed $17M of that since its June launch, with CEO Vlad Tenev calling it a top-three US DCM at 3.5B contracts traded to date; Robinhood still routes roughly 60% of weekly prediction-market volume to Kalshi.
- Rothera fees are capped at 1 cent per contract vs. Kalshi's 2-cent maximum.
Licensing
- DCM
- Operating via MIAXdx (Rothera JV)
- SEF
- N/A
- State coverage
- Targeted in multi-state C&Ds and CFTC counter-suits
Filings on the tracker (2)
Licensing Tracker- DCMRothera (Robinhood / Susquehanna / MIAX JV)ApprovedApr 30, 2026
- No-ActionMIAXdx (formerly LedgerX)ApprovedJan 20, 2026
Products
Development timeline
Dated developments compiled for this operator, newest first. Select an entry for the full detail.
- September 16, 2026
Named in Missouri's six-operator cease-and-desist order
Missouri AG Catherine Hanaway ordered Robinhood, alongside five other operators, to stop offering sports event contracts to Missouri residents within 30 days or obtain a license from the Missouri Gaming Commission, saying she expects a settlement effort before any lawsuit (enf-mo-ag-six).
- September 16, 2026
Named as co-defendant as Ninth Circuit revived a tribal IGRA injunction against sports contracts on California tribal land
A Ninth Circuit panel (No. 25-7504) ruled for Blue Lake Rancheria and Chicken Ranch Rancheria against Kalshi and Robinhood, reversing the district court's denial of a preliminary injunction and holding the tribes are likely to succeed in showing the sports-event contracts constitute unauthorized Class III gaming under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act. The ruling reinstates injunctive relief blocking the contracts on the two tribes' reservations.
- September 11, 2026
Moved to intervene in the CFTC's suit against Connecticut
Robinhood asked to intervene in the CFTC's federal suit against Connecticut on September 11, 2026, citing its own cease-and-desist order from the state as a direct interest; Connecticut is not opposing the request. The CFTC filed a motion for a preliminary injunction in the same case the same day, seeking to block the state's enforcement following its September 10 nine-operator escalation (law-cftc-v-ct).
- September 10, 2026
Named in Connecticut's nine-operator cease-and-desist order
Connecticut's Department of Consumer Protection ordered Robinhood, alongside eight other operators, to stop offering sports event contracts to Connecticut residents and to let existing customers withdraw funds, part of a nearly-30-subpoena escalation of the state's enforcement campaign (enf-ct-dcp-nine).
- September 9, 2026
Filed a Supreme Court cert petition seeking review of the Ninth Circuit's Nevada ruling
Robinhood Derivatives filed its own petition for a writ of certiorari on September 9, 2026, asking the Supreme Court to review the Ninth Circuit's August 28 ruling that Nevada may enforce its cease-and-desist against sports-event contracts (law-kalshi-v-hendrick-nv) — a panel decision that also covered Robinhood's and Crypto.com's parallel Nevada appeals alongside Kalshi's. It is the first Supreme Court petition filed by an operator rather than a state attorney general, following New Jersey's September 2 cert petition in the parallel Flaherty case.
Show 12 earlier developmentsCollapse earlier developments
- September 8, 2026
Took equity stakes in Crypto.com and OG.com, routing volume to OG.com's exchange
Robinhood agreed to take equity stakes in Crypto.com and its prediction-markets spinout OG.com, priced in line with Citadel Securities' July investment valuing the Crypto.com group at $20B (including a standalone $5B valuation for OG.com), and will route retail event-contract volume through OG.com's CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse starting September 8; Crypto.com called it OG.com's largest B2B prediction-markets partnership by volume. It is Robinhood's third venue relationship (alongside KalshiEX and its own Rothera JV) in which it holds equity in the clearing infrastructure rather than a pure distribution deal.
- September 8, 2026
Agreed to pause new Michigan sports-event contracts pending Sixth Circuit appeal
Robinhood Derivatives reached a court-approved stipulation with Michigan officials, effective September 9, 2026, agreeing to stop offering new sports-event contracts via the KalshiEX and Rothera Exchange and Clearing venues to Michigan customers and to close out remaining open positions by October 9, in exchange for the state forbearing enforcement while its Sixth Circuit appeal is pending (law-mi-v-kalshi); the deal is a pause, not a merits ruling, and preserves Robinhood's CEA-preemption defense.
- September 2, 2026
Named as one of several co-defendants
Named as one of several co-defendants (alongside lead defendants DraftKings and Polymarket, plus CME and a group of market-making firms) in Hughes v. DraftKings (Charleston County, SC, surfaced September 2, 2026); the suit's core unlicensed-gambling theory targets DraftKings' and Polymarket's own sports-event contracts, adding to Robinhood's existing multi-state litigation exposure without a distinct new theory against it specifically.
- September 1, 2026
Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight on September 1
Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight on September 1, 2026 (price target raised to $150 from $124), citing prediction markets' roughly 15x YoY Q2 revenue growth as an underappreciated monetization driver and modeling a 23% revenue CAGR through 2028.
- August 28, 2026
Multiple outlets' coverage of the August 28 Ninth Circuit ruling
Multiple outlets' coverage of the August 28 Ninth Circuit ruling (CNBC, Hokanews) describes Nevada's Ninth Circuit win as decided against Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Robinhood together, with Reuters reporting Robinhood intends to appeal; SiaPredict's tracker currently reflects that ruling only under Kalshi's case (law-kalshi-v-hendrick-nv) — Robinhood's own Nevada docket details are unconfirmed and flagged for follow-up (ai-robinhood-20260904).
- July 29, 2026
Q2 2026 earnings (reported July 29): total net revenue $1.31B (+32% YoY); event-contracts revenue $156M
Q2 2026 earnings (reported July 29): total net revenue $1.31B (+32% YoY); event-contracts revenue $156M (up more than 10x YoY) on 13.6 billion contracts traded, surpassing crypto-trading revenue ($100M) for the first time.
- July 29, 2026
On July 29, 2026, a federal court denied the CFTC's bid to shield Robinhood and its co-defendants
On July 29, 2026, a federal court denied the CFTC's bid to shield Robinhood and its co-defendants from Wisconsin's state enforcement suits, which may now proceed.
- June 5, 2026
Rothera operationalized under MIAXdx ahead of Q2 launch; World Cup routing began June 5, 2026
- June 4, 2026
On June 4-5, 2026, Robinhood began routing World Cup soccer contracts to Rothera — the first large-scale
On June 4-5, 2026, Robinhood began routing World Cup soccer contracts to Rothera — the first large-scale commercial deployment of the new exchange — ahead of the June 11 World Cup kickoff.
- April 30, 2026
First own-stack event contracts (baseball, jobless claims, core PCE) self-certified April 30, listing May 20
- Q1 2026
Q1 2026 earnings: prediction-markets revenue +320% YoY to $147M; April volume tracking ~$3B
- January 2025
Robinhood Markets was fined $45M by the SEC in January 2025
Robinhood Markets was fined $45M by the SEC in January 2025; the SEC closed its Robinhood Crypto investigation without action in February 2025.
Regulatory history
No enforcement actions matching this operator by name.
Recent activity
Sia Insights
Sia's analysis from broader market, trading, and industry-press signals. Not a primary regulatory source and not legal advice.
- Sep 9, 2026robinhoodstonexanalystrobinhood-chainevent-contracts
StoneX sees roughly 45% upside in Robinhood shares, citing prediction markets and the newly launched Robinhood Chain layer-2 as accelerating growth drivers rather than one-off catalysts. The note lands the same week Robinhood confirmed equity stakes in Crypto.com and OG.com and reached a stipulated pause on new Michigan sports contracts, underscoring that sell-side bullishness on the prediction-markets line has so far shrugged off the mounting state-litigation overhang facing every operator in the category.
- Sep 8, 2026robinhoodpiper-sandleranalystevent-contractsrevenue
Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley raised his Robinhood price target to $145 from $135 on September 3, modeling a base case of roughly 29.7 billion event contracts traded from September through December 2026 (a threefold year-over-year increase) generating about $320 million in revenue over the four-month span, or $960 million annualized. The note, following Morgan Stanley's September 1 upgrade to Overweight on the same thesis, treats prediction-market trading less as a seasonal NFL-kickoff bump and more as a structural, multi-quarter revenue line now central to how sell-side analysts value the brokerage.
- Sep 4, 2026robinhoodnevadaninth-circuitdocket-gap
Coverage of the August 28 Ninth Circuit ruling (CNBC, Hokanews) describes it as deciding Nevada's parallel court battles with three operators — Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Robinhood — not Kalshi alone, with Reuters reporting Robinhood intends to appeal; SiaPredict's tracker currently reflects the ruling only against Kalshi (law-kalshi-v-hendrick-nv), so Robinhood's and Crypto.com's own Nevada dockets may need a dedicated entry once their case numbers and procedural posture are confirmed. If the reporting holds, the practical read is unchanged from Kalshi's case: Nevada's gambling-law authority over sports-event contracts survives, and Robinhood faces the same circuit-split dynamic feeding New Jersey's September 2 Supreme Court petition.
- Sep 1, 2026robinhoodmorgan-stanleyanalystvaluationrevenue
Morgan Stanley upgraded Robinhood to overweight on September 1 and raised its price target to $150 from $124, with analyst Michael Cyprys citing prediction markets as an underappreciated monetization driver: fewer than 2 million users generated $156M of Q2 revenue in the category, up roughly 15x from $10M a year earlier. The bank now models a 23% revenue CAGR through 2028, about 6% above consensus, treating prediction-market take rate and user growth as durable rather than a one-off election/sports spike — a notably bullish read given the regulatory overhang (state suits, the CFTC's ongoing rulemaking) facing every operator in this sector.
- Jul 31, 2026earningsrotheradistribution
Robinhood's Q2 print (reported July 29-30) marks a turning point: prediction-markets revenue ($156M) outpaced crypto trading ($100M) for the first time, with Rothera processing 2.1B contracts in its first month live. Still, roughly 60% of weekly prediction-market volume — over $1B — continues to route to Kalshi rather than Rothera, and a reported July 27 conversation about carrying Crypto.com's contracts suggests the hybrid, multi-exchange posture is far from finished.
Scoring is illustrative and based on public information. SiaPredict does not provide legal advice.