CFTC's Two Event-Contract Swap Rules Reach the White House
October 6, 2026 · How we source this
On September 28, 2026 the CFTC sent OMB a proposed rule defining event contracts as swaps and an interim final rule excluding casino-style gambling products. Here is what each rule does, what happens next, and why the circuit split makes the timing consequential.
What the CFTC sent to the White House
The CFTC submitted two event-contract rules to the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA), part of the Office of Management and Budget, on September 28, 2026, according to CoinDesk's September 30 report. Press accounts identify them as RIN 3038-AF82, a proposed rule titled "Further Definition of 'Swap' to Include Event Contracts," and RIN 3038-AF81, an interim final rule that would exclude "casino-style gambling products" from the swap definition.
The rule text has not been published. Everything below rests on press reporting, not a CFTC document, and the details may change before publication.
Why the swap definition is the whole fight
The CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction over a contract depends on that contract being a swap or a future under the Commodity Exchange Act. If an event contract is a swap, the CFTC's position is that state gambling law is preempted. If it is not, the contract can fall back under state wagering statutes.
That is why so many Kalshi cases turn on a single definitional question. A regulation that fixes the answer in the agency's own rulebook is an attempt to move the argument from case-by-case litigation to a rule courts must at least weigh.
Proposed rule versus interim final rule
A proposed rule goes out for public comment before it can take effect. Reporting indicates the swap-definition rule will follow that path, and comment typically opens only after OIRA clears it.
An interim final rule can take effect on publication and is open to comment afterward. The gambling-exclusion rule is therefore the faster of the two. Reporting says both were designated not economically significant, which shapes the depth of OIRA's review.
The collision with the circuits
CoinDesk notes that the Sixth and Eighth Circuits recently held that Kalshi's sports contracts are not swaps and remain subject to state gambling regulation. The Third Circuit earlier sided with CFTC jurisdiction over prediction markets.
An agency definition would put the CFTC's classification directly against two appellate holdings. Courts do not defer automatically to an agency's reading of a statutory term, so a rule does not by itself settle a split that may reach the Supreme Court.
What compliance teams should watch
Watch for three events: publication of the rule text, the opening of the comment period, and the effective date of the interim final rule. The text will show whether the exclusion for gambling products is drawn by contract category or by a functional test, which determines how sports contracts are treated.
Reporting also notes that Chairman Mike Selig is acting without additional commissioners, since none have been nominated to the five-member body. This is analysis of public regulatory activity, not legal advice.