SiaPredict DailyOctober 8, 2026

Today's top 4

1. 1
   Regulatory

   39 state attorneys general urge Supreme Court to take up New Jersey's petition against Kalshi

   A bipartisan coalition of 38 state AGs and the District of Columbia filed an amicus brief on or about October 7 supporting New Jersey's certiorari petition from the Third Circuit's April ruling for Kalshi. The brief frames a circuit split with the Sixth Circuit, which held the CEA does not preempt state gambling laws, and the Ninth Circuit, which sided with Nevada in August.

   Sports Betting Dime

   Sia's Take

   For prediction market operators, the practical read is that a Supreme Court grant on sports-contract preemption is becoming more likely, and state enforcement is unlikely to ease before then.

2. 2
   Industry

   Four tribes in California and Oklahoma launch Kalshi-backed prediction apps

   Four tribes, including Kletsel Dehe Wintun Nation and Alabama-Quassarte Tribal Town, launched Kalshi-linked apps on October 7, following Tunica-Biloxi's September announcement. Tribal gaming groups such as the Washington Indian Gaming Association remain opposed, and court rulings on tribal claims have split.

   Dimers

   Sia's Take

   We are now seeing a divergence in the response to prediction markets encroaching upon the tribal gaming industry at the state level. While some tribes remain steadfastly against prediction markets operating in their jurisdictions, other tribes are now integrating licensed prediction market operators into their existing gaming product lines. Sia predicts tribal positioning will stay divided and to feature in any CFTC rulemaking comments.

3. 3
   Industry

   NPR: CFTC shrinks as Selig, the sole commissioner, pushes prediction-market rulemaking

   NPR reports that Chairman Michael Selig is the only sitting member of the normally five-member commission, and that a former CFTC director says reduced headcount limits the agency's capacity to write new rules. Selig has said he will not delay rulemaking while awaiting other commissioners.

   NPR

   Sia's Take

   Prediction market operators should plan for a proposed rule on a constrained staff timeline, with added litigation risk from a single-commissioner process.

4. 4
   RegulatoryCatch-up

   CFTC staff issues no-action relief for conversion of perpetual-style security index futures to true perpetuals

   The CFTC Division of Market Oversight issued relief on October 5 (Press Release 9308-26, Staff Letter 26-29) allowing DCMs to remove expiration dates from existing perpetual-style broad-based security index futures, subject to notice, exit opportunity and disclosure conditions. The relief expires October 20 and does not mention event contracts.

   CFTC

   Sia's Take

   This action signals the CFTC's openness to perpetual structures on regulated venues and is a clear depiction of their risk appetite when it comes to prediction markets under their current leadership.