SiaPredict DailyOctober 12, 2026
Top line
The CFTC issued two October 9 rulemakings that draw the federal line between event contracts and casino-style products, while state and tribal pressure on sports contracts continued. The Supreme Court docket in Flaherty v. KalshiEX drew amicus support from the NFL and 39 states. Operators kept narrowing sports offerings state by state.
Today's top 8
- 1Regulatory
CFTC proposes rule defining certain event contracts as swaps and opens public comment
The CFTC published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on October 9 (Press Release 9310-26) that would expressly place event contracts on sports, politics, culture and weather within the definition of swap. Compliance teams should treat this as the agency's clearest statement yet that these contracts sit under its jurisdiction, and plan comment-period input.
CFTCSia's Take
This action is the CFTC's strongest indication to-date that it plans to keep oversight of sports, political and other culture related event contracts solely under its purview and does not intend to share oversight responsibilities with states or any other federal or local oversight bodies. Compliance teams should treat this as the agency's clearest statement yet that these contracts sit under its jurisdiction, and plan comment-period input.
- 2Regulatory
CFTC issues interim final rule excluding casino-style gambling products from the definition of swap
The CFTC's Interim Final Rule of October 9 (Press Release 9309-26) states that casino-style products, including sportsbook and casino-game wagers, are not swaps. Together with the companion proposal, it draws the federal line that operators will have to map their contract listings against.
CFTCSia's Take
The CFTC has given clear guidance, for the first time, that it does not view casino-style game wagers as swaps and has explicitly excluded them from their federal regulatory purview. Prudent prediction market operators should take note of this action and ensure that their offerings stay away from such offerings to avoid state and local level scrutiny.
- 3RegulatoryCatch-up
NFL and a 39-state coalition file Supreme Court amicus briefs backing New Jersey's petition in Flaherty v. KalshiEX
The NFL and a coalition of 39 states and DC urged the Supreme Court to grant certiorari in Flaherty v. KalshiEX LLC (No. 26-299), arguing sports event contracts are gambling rather than swaps. A grant would put the federal preemption question before the Court and keep state-by-state exposure open.
Supreme Court docket 26-299 (amicus brief)Sia's Take
If certiorari is granted in this case prediction market operators may face immediate scrutiny from state and local regulators while the broader question of prediction market oversight is being decided. Licensed prediction market operators should watch this space closely as the Supreme Court's actions may have an immediate effect on their day-to-day regulatory operations.
- 4RegulatoryCatch-up
Seminole Tribe of Florida sues DraftKings, GUS III LLC and CEO Jason Robins over prediction-market offerings
The Tribe filed a 72-page complaint in Broward County Circuit Court on October 8, alleging DraftKings Predictions and related sports offerings amount to illegal sports betting in Florida. The case extends tribal gaming disputes to a licensed sportsbook operator's prediction-market entity.
Covers.comSia's Take
This case extends tribal gaming disputes to a licensed sportsbook operator's prediction-market entity. While a stat-level ruling may have no long-term impact on DraftKings' operations in the state, a near-term operational injunction may. Other licensed prediction market operators should watch the outcome of this case closely.
- 5Industry
Kalshi investigates pre-announcement bets on White House press secretary pick
The Block, citing the Wall Street Journal, reports Kalshi is examining at least three small wagers placed before the selection was public. The case tests the platform's market-integrity surveillance and reinforces the need for documented insider-trading controls on political contracts.
The BlockSia's Take
While Kalshi's internal actions on this case were swift, this case tests the platform's market-integrity surveillance and reinforces the need for documented insider-trading controls on political contracts.
- 6RegulatoryCatch-up
Coinbase agrees with Michigan Gaming Control Board to stop offering sports event contracts in the state
Under a stipulation announced October 7, Coinbase Financial Markets stopped listing new sports event contracts for Michigan customers as of October 10. The state agreed to withhold enforcement while Sixth Circuit appeals proceed, so the underlying jurisdiction question remains unresolved.
Michigan Gaming Control Board - 7Industry
Blockchain.com reported to have applied to the CFTC for DCM and FCM status
The Block, citing CNBC, reports the firm seeks designated contract market and futures commission merchant status to offer U.S. prediction markets and crypto derivatives. The filing date is not stated. It would add another crypto-native venue to the federally registered field.
The Block - 8IndustryCatch-up
PrizePicks suspends Team Picks sports prediction markets in Missouri
PrizePicks told Missouri customers on October 6 that updated legal requirements for prediction markets require it to suspend Team Picks in the state. Existing entries remain active. It is another example of operators withdrawing sports contracts state by state ahead of enforcement.
SBC Americas