SiaPredict DailyOctober 13, 2026

Today's top 4

1. 1
   RegulatoryCatch-up

   Ohio's October 16 deadline nears for ten prediction-market operators told to stop offering sports event contracts

   The Ohio Casino Control Commission sent cease-and-desist notices to ten operators, directing each to stop offering sports event contracts to Ohio residents by October 16 and warning of civil penalties for noncompliance. The notices follow the Sixth Circuit's September 25 ruling against Kalshi on federal preemption.

   Covers.com

   Sia's Take

   This deadline will be a major test for the actionable enforcement powers of state and local regulators and will be key in determining their oversight authority while the United States Supreme Court ultimately decides the outcome upon whose jurisdiction prediction market regulatory oversight truly falls. Compliance teams should expect geofencing or delisting decisions this week, as Coinbase already made in Michigan.

2. 2
   IndustryCatch-up

   Google bars prediction-market advertising in Connecticut effective October 7

   Google Ads policy now states that advertising of prediction markets and related products in Connecticut is prohibited effective October 7, 2026. The notice does not define related products or describe enforcement.

   Google Ads Advertising Policies Help

   Sia's Take

   Operators buying paid search in the state should audit campaigns, since ad-platform restrictions are now following state regulatory pressure rather than adhering to federal regulatory guidelines. This will be a very interesting space to watch as more states (including Ohio and Michigan) take stronger positions against the operation of sports and political contracts within their jurisdictions.

3. 3
   Industry

   Macquarie trims 2026 prediction-market taker volume forecast to $187 billion

   Casino.org reports Macquarie now forecasts $187 billion in 2026 taker volume, slightly below its prior $190 billion estimate and about 8.5 times 2025's $22 billion. September volume was $20.1 billion, with sports contracts making up 79% of the largest platform's volume. That sports concentration is what keeps state gaming regulators focused on the sector. Figures are secondary reporting of the Macquarie note.

   Casino.org
4. 4
   Industry

   Reuters/Ipsos poll finds 60% of US adults oppose betting on elections as networks add market odds

   The poll of 4,506 adults (September 30 to October 5) found 60% opposed to election wagering, 13% in favor and 24% unsure, with opposition across both parties. CBS News said it will add real-time Kalshi prices to midterm coverage, and Kalshi has similar arrangements with CNN and CNBC. Kalshi called the poll biased. Expect public sentiment to feature in state and congressional arguments ahead of the midterms.

   Fortune