SiaPredict DailyOctober 16, 2026

Today's top 5

1. 1
   Regulatory

   Underdog sues Tennessee after cease-and-desist order

   Underdog filed suit in the Middle District of Tennessee against the state, its attorney general and Sports Wagering Council members after an October 9 cease-and-desist order, arguing the CFTC framework preempts state gambling law. The Sixth Circuit vacated Kalshi's Tennessee injunction on September 25, so the suit starts on adverse circuit ground.

   Covers

   Sia's Take

   While the CFTC's recent rulemaking sought to clarify the definition of swap trading and distinguish regulated prediction markets from casino-style products, the ongoing split between federal circuit courts continues to fuel uncertainty. With state compliance deadlines, such as Ohio’s October 16 mandate looming, operators face a fragmented regulatory landscape that likely requires Supreme Court intervention to resolve the issue of federal preemption.

2. 2
   RegulatoryCatch-up

   CFTC interim final rule excludes casino-style gambling from swap definition

   The CFTC's issued Interim Final Rule on October 9 (Press Release 9309-26) stating that casino-style gambling products are not swaps takes effect on Federal Register publication, with comments due within 30 days.

   CFTC

   Sia's Take

   The CFTC's October 9 final rule issuance defines the regulatory boundary between derivatives and gambling products, establishing the framework in which prediction markets will operate as federal oversight of the industry gains broader acceptance.

3. 3
   RegulatoryCatch-up

   Coinbase agrees with Michigan regulator to halt sports event contracts

   Coinbase entered a stipulation with the Michigan Gaming Control Board to stop offering sports-related event contracts in the state. It adds to the list of operators pulling back in states pressing unlicensed-wagering claims.

   Michigan Gaming Control Board

   Sia's Take

   Coinbase’s recent move reflects a broader trend among prediction market operators: preemptively managing regulatory exposure while awaiting a definitive Supreme Court ruling. Although most operators continue to challenge the reach of state and local oversight, they are increasingly willing to implement geofencing as an interim measure to maintain operations while the legal landscape remains in flux.

4. 4
   RegulatoryCatch-up

   PrizePicks suspends Team Picks prediction markets in Missouri

   PrizePicks told Missouri customers on October 6 that it must suspend Team Picks citing updated legal requirements. It was not among the six operators that Attorney General Catherine Hanaway sent cease-and-desist letters in September.

   SBC Americas

   Sia's Take

   PrizePicks' latest actions signal a broader industry trend. Operators beyond the primary legal targets of state-level actions are now proactively pulling back or adjusting services as a defensive measure, reflecting deep uncertainty within the current, fluctuating regulatory landscape.

5. 5
   IndustryCatch-up

   Blockchain.com reported to have applied for CFTC DCM and FCM status

   The Block, citing CNBC, reported that Blockchain.com has applied to operate as a designated contract market and register as a futures commission merchant to offer prediction markets and crypto derivatives to US customers. The filing date was not reported and no CFTC document was retrieved. It would add another crypto-native entrant to the regulated venue field.

   The Block