SiaPredict DailyAugust 13, 2026
Top line
New York City Council opened a marketing-practices investigation into Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, and Gemini's Titan platform, adding a consumer-protection front to the sector's existing state-gambling and CFTC jurisdictional fights. FlightAware's trademark suit against Kalshi collapsed a day after it was filed, with Kalshi quietly relabeling the disputed flight-cancellation contracts in what looks like a private settlement. Both leading platforms kept building out for scale, Polymarket with a growth-focused executive hire and Kalshi with a Wall Street-style data feed, even as new data shows their combined trading volume cooling from its World Cup peak.
Today's top 4
- 1Regulatory
NYC Council opens investigation into leading Prediction Markets' marketing practices
New York City Council Speaker Julie Menin sent formal information requests to Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, and Gemini's Titan platform, opening a legislative inquiry into whether their marketing, including undisclosed influencer content and videos depicting fabricated or misleadingly edited trades, is false, deceptive, or predatory. The formal information request has a particular focus on exposure to minors and compulsive wagering. The companies have 14 days to respond. It is a distinct consumer-protection and advertising-practices track, separate from the state-gambling-law and CFTC-jurisdiction fights, and compliance and marketing teams should expect similar inquiries from other cities.
NYC CouncilSia's Take
This action opens a new frontier for the mounting legal battles that prediction markets are facing. The consumer-focused inquiry from a local city-level jurisdiction may ultimately require all licensed prediction market platforms to alter their marketing practices. While this action from the New York City Council may seem minor and tailored specifically to advertising practices, the implications of this action may ultimately be much larger. This action shows the local jurisdictions may also be looking to enter the prediction market regulatory landscape.
- 2Regulatory
FlightAware drops its Kalshi lawsuit one day after filing it
FlightAware voluntarily dismissed, without prejudice, the trademark and breach-of-contract suit it filed a day earlier in the Southern District of New York over Kalshi's flight-cancellation contracts. Around the same time, Kalshi changed the settlement language on the affected markets from "verified from FlightAware" to "verified from Primary Source Agency," with a disclaimer of any endorsement or affiliation. Neither company has confirmed a settlement, but the sequence points to a quick private resolution and underscores that third-party data-licensing terms, not just gaming law, are now a live legal exposure for event-contract settlement sources.
The BlockSia's Take
Quiet non-public resolution of a civil matter is expected in such cases. Given the rapidly increasing valuations of most prediction markets, market watchers should expect similar civil cases to be settled outside of court.
- 3Industry
Kalshi adds DoubleZero's low-latency feed to court institutional order-flow
Kalshi will integrate DoubleZero's Solana-based DoubleZeroEdge data feed to distribute machine-readable pricing for its most actively traded contracts, including crypto perpetual futures, over a dedicated low-latency connection modeled on distribution infrastructure long used by NYSE, Nasdaq, and CME. It is a direct pitch for institutional and algorithmic order flow rather than retail volume, another sign that Kalshi is building exchange-grade market infrastructure to match its CFTC-regulated exchange status.
CoinDeskSia's Take
This product base expansion by Kalsi is yet another example of a major licensed prediction market firm expanding its footprints in a regulated market. While this growth will bolster their standing as a market maker in the industry, and their eventual bottom line, this new product base adds a considerable amount of exposure both from a legal and compliance prospective. Any prediction market firm seeking to expand in this space will have to have ensure that they have the appropriate regulatory and data security controls and procedures in place to properly execute this type of product expansion.
- 4Industry
Polymarket and Kalshi trading volume cools sharply after World Cup peak
Combined weekly trading volume on Polymarket's international and US exchanges fell 56% from June's record high with no comparable rebound so far, while Kalshi's post-tournament pullback was a milder 25% over the same measure, per Bloomberg's analysis of Dune Analytics data. The divergence suggests Polymarket is more dependent on marquee sporting and political catalysts to sustain volume than Kalshi, a data point worth watching heading into the NFL season and midterm cycle both platforms are counting on to reverse the slide.
BloombergSia's Take
An expected decline in trading volume was expected once the world's largest sporting tournament came to an end.