SiaPredict DailyAugust 19, 2026

Today's top 5

1. 1
   RegulatoryCatch-up

   Second Circuit bid denied as Kalshi seeks to block Connecticut enforcement pending appeal

   U.S. District Judge Vernon D. Oliver denied Kalshi's motion for an emergency injunction pending appeal, finding the company had not made the required "strong showing" of success on the merits and rejecting its argument that the CFTC's August 11 Section 8a(9) emergency order in the New York dispute changes the preemption analysis. Kalshi has appealed the underlying preliminary-injunction denial to the Second Circuit, while Connecticut Attorney General William Tong's office has asked for more time (until August 24) to respond in full. The ruling clears a path for Connecticut to pursue its own enforcement action against Kalshi's sports event contracts while the appeal proceeds.

   SportsBettingDime

   Sia's Take

   While this action does not change the operational status of live prediction markets operating in the state of Connecticut, it does show that the question of regulatory oversight (local/state v. federal) is making its way through the federal court system and will undoubtedly be ultimately decided at the circuit court or supreme court level. Prospective and current licensed prediction markets will need to pay close attention to this space and monitor movements to ensure that their compliance program satisfies any shifts which may ultimately require compliance with local regulations as well.

2. 2
   RegulatoryCatch-up

   Kalshi calls Nevada's contempt push a "PR stunt" as $120,000-a-day fine fight continues

   The Nevada Gaming Control Board is pressing a Carson City court to hold Kalshi in contempt and impose $120,000-per-day fines for allegedly missing its August 12 geofencing deadline under a July settlement, after investigators said they placed trades from Nevada the day after the cutoff. Kalshi disputed the board's account, calling the contempt motion a "PR stunt," arguing investigators misrepresented their location and worked around its blocking system, and saying it had sought specific compliance feedback from regulators that went unanswered. It is a live test of how strictly a state will enforce a self-reported geofencing rollout once a settlement deadline actually arrives.

   Nevada Current

   Sia's Take

   This action is one of the first instances of a local jurisdiction actively enforcing an out-of-court settlement agreement with a licensed prediction market. If, in the future, federal regulators are ordered to cede some regulatory authority to state and local officials, geoblocking features will become key to the operational existence and continued operation of licensed prediction markets nationally. A robust governance and compliance structure around geoblocking will be required in order for prediction markets to operate in non-blocked jurisdictions.

3. 3
   Regulatory

   South Korea blocks Polymarket, joining more than 30 jurisdictions restricting access

   South Korea's Korea Communications Standards Commission ruled on August 18 that Polymarket facilitates illegal gambling under the Criminal Act and the National Sports Promotion Act, ordering telecom operators to block access nationwide and rejecting Polymarket's argument that its non-custodial, peer-to-peer structure and removal of Korean-language services exempt it from local law. The commission cited locally tailored markets, including one on Seoul rainfall, as evidence the platform still targets domestic users, and VPN users could face fines of up to 10 million won for circumventing the block. South Korea joins France, Germany, Australia, and Ukraine in restricting Polymarket, underscoring that its regulatory exposure extends well beyond the state-by-state fight underway in the US.

   Cointelegraph

   Sia's Take

   South Korea is joining a number of foreign jurisdiction in banning prediction markets outright as vehicles for illegal gambling. Similar to the Nevada action cited above, A robust governance and compliance structure around geoblocking will be required in order for prediction markets to continue to operate in non-blocked international jurisdictions.

4. 4
   Industry

   Kalshi files with CFTC to add S&P 500 and copper perpetual futures

   KalshiEX filed with the CFTC on August 18 to list two new perpetual futures contracts, US500 tracking the MerQube US Large Cap Index and COPPERPERP tracking spot copper prices via the Pyth Network feed, extending its perpetuals line beyond the bitcoin contract the CFTC approved in May. The filing pushes Kalshi further into products historically listed on CME's own exchanges just as CME's June lawsuit against the CFTC, arguing perpetual futures should be regulated as swaps rather than futures, remains pending in federal court. It signals Kalshi is treating that litigation risk as a cost of expanding into equity-index and commodity exchanges rather than a reason to pause.

   The Block

   Sia's Take

   Expansion into equity-index and commodity exchanges is a product expansion which most established prediction markets are actively undertaking. This action will undoubtedly lead to more regulatory scrutiny and expanded federal oversight, this time from the SEC. Licensed prediction market operators need to be aware of the existing SEC requirements prior to expansion and will need to have a robust compliance program and governance structure in place in order to satisfy long-established SEC reporting standards.

5. 5
   Industry

   Kalshi signs exclusive US data and streaming deal with Catalist Sports

   Kalshi agreed to a multi-year, exclusive US partnership with Catalist Sports for official live-streaming and data rights across more than 65,000 matches a year, including the World Tennis Tour, the Australian Open, and the Davis Cup, plus international football, basketball, and ice hockey content. The deal gives Kalshi first-party data for markets it already lists heavily, reducing reliance on third-party vendors for settlement and market design in a category where officiating and scoring disputes carry direct manipulation and integrity risk. It is a content and infrastructure play distinct from Kalshi's same-day CFTC perpetuals filing, but part of the same broader push to deepen its product moat ahead of the fall sports calendar.

   AGB

   Sia's Take

   This contract further solidifies Kalshi's place in the sports contracts space. While prediction markets firmly maintain that they are NOT sports gambling platforms, such deals will only bolster the stance of local and state regulators who firmly maintain that they are.