SiaPredict DailyAugust 25, 2026

Today's top 9

1. 1
   RegulatoryCatch-up

   Second Circuit declines to fast-track Kalshi's bid to block Connecticut enforcement

   Following U.S. District Judge Vernon D. Oliver's Aug. 10 ruling that Kalshi's sports contracts are not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, and his subsequent denial of an emergency injunction pending appeal, a Second Circuit judge denied Kalshi's request for a temporary injunction and referred the motion to a three-judge panel, giving Connecticut until Aug. 24 to respond. Connecticut can now move toward enforcement while the appeal proceeds, another adverse data point for Kalshi's federal-preemption theory.

   Gambling Insider

   Sia's Take

   Kalshi is the first licensed prediction market to take broad preemptive action to side-step state and local regulatory action in favor of federal oversight which remains favorable to the industry. The Second Circuit's action shows that, while federal regulators may remain firmly in the corner of licensed prediction markets, the courts are not. This is yet another action which highlights that regulatory action remains the greatest threat to the continued operation of licensed prediction markets.

2. 2
   RegulatoryCatch-up

   CFTC invokes emergency authority to keep Kalshi operating in New York

   After New York Attorney General Letitia James sued KalshiEX on July 31 seeking to shut the platform down and more than $36 billion in damages and restitution, the CFTC invoked its Section 8a(9) emergency authority on Aug. 11 to order Kalshi to keep operating statewide, reasserting that CFTC-regulated event contracts fall within exclusive federal jurisdiction. It is one of the clearest instances yet of the CFTC actively overriding a state enforcement action rather than simply filing a competing suit.

   Bloomberg

   Sia's Take

   The CFTC has repeatedly overridden state/local level actions to curb or curtail the operations of prediction markets within their jurisdiction. The CFTC's continual invocation of its authority over state and local lawmakers shows that this battle for authority will undoubtedly be decided in the US Supreme Court.

3. 3
   Industry

   DraftKings, Fanatics, and FanDuel press CFTC for uniform consumer protections

   Testifying before the CFTC's Innovation Advisory Committee, DraftKings CEO Jason Robins, Fanatics Betting and Gaming CEO Matt King, and FanDuel president Christian Genetski called for consistent consumer-protection and market-integrity standards regardless of whether an operator runs as a designated contract market or through a futures commission merchant. The joint appearance signals the established sportsbook operators are positioning themselves as compliance-forward as prediction markets absorb a growing share of their spend ahead of the NFL season.

   Covers.com

   Sia's Take

   This action shows that licensed prediction markets are seeking to pre-empt any regulatory actions by requesting and implementing consumer protection standards, in advance, in order to avoid regulatory infractions in the future.

4. 4
   IndustryCatch-up

   Kalshi partners with Nasdaq for multi-year market surveillance

   Kalshi will phase in Nasdaq's market surveillance platform, already used by more than 50 exchanges and 20 regulators, to strengthen real-time detection of manipulation and insider trading and to support CFTC-formatted trade-data reporting. The deal follows enforcement actions tied to a former congressman and a White House staffer trading on Kalshi contracts, and reads as a credibility investment ahead of continued regulatory scrutiny.

   GV Wire

   Sia's Take

   Market surveillance and other oversight controls are key to the continued effective operation of licensed prediction markets. This preemptive step taken by Kalshi also bolsters trust amongst consumers concerned with market manipulation.

5. 5
   IndustryCatch-up

   Kalshi files to launch perpetual futures tied to equity indexes

   Kalshi filed with regulators to launch perpetual futures on equity indexes, extending beyond the crypto-linked perpetual futures it began offering in late May and pushing further into territory traditionally occupied by CME and other established derivatives exchanges. The filing adds another product line to a CFTC self-certification queue that committee members have already flagged as growing faster than the agency's review capacity.

   CNBC
6. 6
   Industry

   The Athletic in advanced sponsorship talks with Kalshi

   The New York Times-owned outlet is in serious, advanced sponsorship discussions with Kalshi, though no deal is finalized, as it simultaneously negotiates with other prediction-market and betting companies following the expiration of its BetMGM deal earlier this year. It would extend Kalshi's growing roster of media and league partnerships, which already includes Fox, CNN, CNBC, the NHL, the Chicago Blackhawks, and Madison Square Garden.

   Front Office Sports
7. 7
   Industry

   Gemini's Titan signs letter of intent with Apex for exclusive crypto event-contract distribution

   Gemini's Titan and Apex signed a letter of intent for exclusive distribution of crypto event contracts through Apex's FCM, adding another tie-up to the fast-consolidating exchange-to-broker distribution pipeline. It shows crypto-native venues replicating the FCM-distribution model Kalshi, ForecastEx, and CME have already used to reach retail brokerages.

   The Block
8. 8
   IndustryCatch-up

   Polymarket in talks to raise roughly $1B at a $20B-plus valuation

   Polymarket is reportedly in early talks to raise about $1 billion at a valuation above $20 billion, more than double its October 2025 mark, as it prepares for the NFL season and the November midterms. The round would still trail Kalshi's reported $22 billion May valuation and separately reported $40 billion talks, underscoring how much capital continues to chase the category even amid an active CFTC probe into Polymarket's promotional practices.

   Bloomberg
9. 9
   Industry

   DraftKings launches prediction platform in California despite sports betting ban

   DraftKings is now available in California through its predictions platform, despite traditional sports betting remaining illegal in the state after voters overwhelmingly rejected efforts to legalize it in 2022. The online betting and gaming company joins prediction market competitors Kalshi and Polymarket, which allow users to fund what are known as "event contracts." Those contracts are categorized differently from other types of gambling and are federally regulated through the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, allowing the platforms to avoid state-level sports betting restrictions or bans.

   NBC San Diego