SiaPredict DailyAugust 31, 2026
Top line
The Ninth Circuit's August 28 ruling for Nevada created a direct circuit split with the Third Circuit's earlier win for Kalshi, making Supreme Court review of state authority over sports event contracts all but inevitable. Connecticut escalated from cease-and-desist to a direct suit against Kalshi the same week and the CFTC previewed a three-part rulemaking agenda meant to formalize its jurisdictional position. The CFTC outlined plans to amend Rule 40.11 to define terms such as "gaming" for contract review, modernize reporting for fully collateralized event contracts and add retail-facing product-governance and consumer-protection standards for designated contract markets. Simultaneously, Kalshi has kept expanding through sports sponsorships and fresh capital even as new data on underage trading and casino-industry opposition sharpened the political backdrop. It's a big day for the prediction markets and here are today's headlines.
Today's top 9
- 1Regulatory
Ninth Circuit hands Nevada a win over Kalshi, creating a direct circuit split with the Third Circuit
A unanimous Ninth Circuit panel affirmed dissolution of Kalshi's preliminary injunction against the Nevada Gaming Control Board, holding that Kalshi's sports event contracts are sports bets rather than CEA-defined swaps and that Nevada may enforce its gaming laws against them. The ruling directly conflicts with the Third Circuit's April decision favoring Kalshi in the New Jersey case, and a CFTC spokesperson called it a circuit split that "calls out for resolution by the Supreme Court."
The BlockSia's Take
This so-called circuit-split between the appeals courts means that an expedited Supreme Court review of regulatory jurisdiction is inevitable in the upcoming term. Compliance teams should treat the federal preemption question as unresolved and jurisdiction-dependent, not settled, while a certiorari petition is prepared.
- 2RegulatoryCatch-up
Connecticut sues Kalshi directly, joining the states litigating rather than just issuing cease-and-desist orders
Connecticut Attorney General William Tong filed suit seeking an injunction against Kalshi's sports event contracts, arguing they are unlicensed sports wagers under state consumer-protection law rather than CFTC-regulated derivatives. The filing follows Connecticut's December 2025 cease-and-desist and Kalshi's subsequent suit against the state, which was denied and is now on appeal to the Second Circuit.
The BlockSia's Take
This action adds Connecticut to the growing list of states pursuing direct litigation on the sports-contracts preemption question rather than relying on administrative orders alone. While circuit courts, and ultimately the United States Supreme Court, will ultimately determine who has final regulatory oversight jurisdiction over prediction markets, states are actively staking their claim on oversight and continually taking action against licensed prediction market operators while the court process plays itself out.
- 3RegulatoryCatch-up
CFTC previews three-part rulemaking agenda for event contracts
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig outlined plans to amend Rule 40.11 to define terms such as "gaming" for contract review, modernize reporting for fully collateralized event contracts and add retail-facing product-governance and consumer-protection standards for designated contract markets. The agenda, presented at the CFTC's Innovation Advisory Committee, aims to give exchanges more certainty on what can list while formalizing the agency's exclusive-jurisdiction position against state gaming regulators. None of it is final rule text yet, but it signals where CFTC-facing compliance obligations are headed for DCMs and FCMs.
Covers.com - 4Industry
Kalshi locks up exclusive prediction-market rights to the US Open
Kalshi became the US Open's exclusive prediction-market partner in a deal finalized just before the tournament's main draw, barring rival platforms from advertising at the venue and on its ESPN broadcasts. The agreement, pushed through quickly by new USTA leadership, follows Kalshi's marketing partnerships with five MLB teams days earlier and extends its sports-sponsorship strategy into another major property. It underscores how far ahead of Polymarket and other rivals Kalshi has moved on mainstream sports distribution, even as its sports contracts remain legally contested in multiple circuits.
The Block - 5IndustryCatch-up
Kalshi signs exclusive marketing partnerships with five MLB teams
Kalshi struck multiyear brand partnerships with the Braves, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres, and Giants covering stadium signage, broadcast and digital placements, and, for the Dodgers, naming rights to an in-stadium bar. Kalshi said baseball-related trading volume on its platform is up 36-fold year over year, and it is separately in talks with MLB itself on a league-wide partnership. The deals show Kalshi pursuing the same sports-league distribution playbook as licensed sportsbooks, ahead of any final resolution of whether its sports contracts are lawful in the states where these teams play.
Fortune - 6IndustryCatch-up
Kalshi's SEC filing shows $1.12 billion raised in private equity sales since April
A Form D filed with the SEC shows Kalshi has sold roughly $1.12 billion of equity since April 3 against a nearly $1.5 billion offering cap, with about $380 million still available under the same notice. The raise sits on top of Kalshi's Series F round and points to continued investor appetite even as the company faces an expanding roster of state lawsuits and an unresolved circuit split over its core product's legality. Expect further capital-raise headlines, as Kalshi is separately reported to be in talks for new funding near a $40 billion valuation.
The Block - 7IndustryCatch-up
Polymarket self-certifies event contracts on AI compute prices
Polymarket US self-certified a slate of contracts tied to GPU rental prices for Nvidia's H100, H200, A100, B200, and RTX 5090 chips, with listing beginning August 24, following Kalshi's earlier launch of compute forward curves on similar benchmarks. Both platforms are betting that AI-infrastructure pricing becomes a durable new event-contract category alongside sports, weather, and elections, and CME has said it plans its own compute-price futures later this year. It is a reminder that self-certification lets platforms list fast-moving new product categories without prior CFTC approval, a practice the agency's current rulemaking review is itself examining.
DeFi Rate - 8Industry
CNN analysis: 18-to-20-year-olds have traded $5.4 billion on Kalshi this year
A CNN analysis of Kalshi's public trading data found that users aged 18 to 20, who are legally barred from most state-regulated gambling, have traded an estimated $5.4 billion on the platform in 2026, about 3% of total volume, with roughly $3.9 billion of that in sports and parlay contracts. Kalshi can serve this age group because it is federally licensed as a financial exchange rather than state-licensed as a sportsbook, most of which set the line at 21. The figures give state regulators and legislators a concrete data point to cite in the age-verification arguments already running through the New Jersey, Nevada, Maryland, and Connecticut litigation.
CNN - 9Industry
Casino industry describes an "all-out war" against prediction markets
CNN's account of the casino industry's lobbying and legal response to Kalshi and Polymarket describes operators and state gaming regulators treating the sector as an existential threat, given that event contracts bypass state licensing and the roughly $18 billion in gambling tax revenue states collected last year. The piece notes that FanDuel and DraftKings have hedged by launching their own CFTC-regulated prediction products, putting them in the same jurisdictional fight even as they compete with Kalshi and Polymarket commercially. For compliance teams, it signals that casino-lobby spending and litigation support, already visible in state AG amicus filings across the Nevada, Maryland, and Massachusetts cases, will keep intensifying regardless of how the circuit split resolves.
CNN