SiaPredict DailySeptember 21, 2026
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Kalshi spent the day defending its new ether perpetual futures contract against wash-trading accusations after a quantitative analyst flagged $539 million in 24-hour volume against just $3.1 million in open interest, with repetitive $5,500 trades behind more than half the flagged activity. The dispute is the first public integrity challenge to Kalshi's crypto-perpetuals expansion and turns on an industry-wide gap: there is no standardized convention for what prediction-market and perpetual-futures volume figures actually represent.
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Kalshi disputes wash-trading allegations on its new ether perpetual futures contract
Quantitative analyst "Beni" of Stealth Neolab alleged manipulation on Kalshi's newly launched ETH-PERP contract on September 21, citing $539 million in 24-hour volume against only $3.1 million in open interest and repetitive $5,500 trades accounting for up to 58% of daily volume across four separate days, arguing a CFTC-filed zero-net-fee rebate schedule for Self-Clearing Members removes the cost of trading against oneself. Kalshi crypto lead IcoBeast.eth responded that the volume figure reflects maximum potential payout rather than upfront cash, a convention he said matches Polymarket's own methodology, that Self-Clearing Member status is open to any qualified firm rather than a closed group, and that Kalshi uses Nasdaq Market Surveillance technology and excludes flagged trades from rebate eligibility. No CFTC enforcement action has followed as of this writing; operationally, the episode is a preview of the scrutiny self-certified volume reporting will keep drawing as more CFTC-regulated venues launch competing perpetual products.
CoinDesk