SiaPredict DailySeptember 26, 2026
Top line
The Sixth Circuit handed Kalshi a second appellate loss in six weeks, ruling Ohio and Tennessee can enforce their gambling laws against its sports contracts and deepening the circuit split now headed toward the Supreme Court. Scrutiny is broadening beyond the courts too, with FDIC officials examining Polymarket's bank-failure wagers and a New Mexico legislative panel pressing the case that prediction markets are eroding tribal gaming revenue.
Today's top 5
- 1Regulatory
Sixth Circuit rules Ohio and Tennessee can regulate Kalshi's sports contracts, deepening circuit split
A unanimous Sixth Circuit panel (Senior Judge Julia Smith Gibbons writing, joined by Judges Eric L. Clay and Rachel S. Bloomekatz) ruled September 25 that Kalshi had not shown its sports-event contracts meet the Commodity Exchange Act's swap definition and, in the alternative, that the CEA does not preempt Ohio's or Tennessee's gambling statutes, affirming denial of Kalshi's Ohio injunction and vacating its Tennessee injunction. The ruling is Kalshi's second federal appellate loss on preemption in weeks, following the Ninth Circuit's August ruling for Nevada, and sharpens the split with the Third Circuit's pro-preemption New Jersey decision that New Jersey has already asked the Supreme Court to review. Ohio and Tennessee are now clear to resume enforcing their gambling laws against Kalshi's sports contracts.
Bloomberg Law - 2Regulatory
Polymarket's bank-failure wagers draw FDIC and Capitol Hill scrutiny
Bloomberg reported September 25 that Polymarket contracts wagering on the failure of Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America have drawn concern from FDIC staff and lawmakers, even though volume on the individual-bank contracts remains modest (a few hundred dollars in many cases, up to the low thousands for names like Deutsche Bank). Senior FDIC staff debated whether the agency's ethics rules needed tightening to bar employees with access to its confidential 'problem banks' list from trading the contracts, concluding existing rules already suffice; FDIC Chairman Travis Hill has separately said he sees value in prediction markets as a monitoring tool but worries about speculation on failure timing. Sen. Elizabeth Warren and CFTC Chairman Michael Selig were also named as following the issue, though neither agency has opened a formal action.
Yahoo Finance (Bloomberg) - 3RegulatoryCatch-up
New Mexico lawmakers hear tribal warnings that prediction markets threaten gaming revenue
New Mexico's legislative Indian Affairs Committee heard testimony September 24 that prediction-market growth, industry-wide volume rose from $890 million in July 2024 to $53 billion in July 2026, is cutting into tribal casino revenue the state's tribes reinvest in their communities; New Mexico tribes reported $896 million in adjusted net win in fiscal 2025. Navajo Nation Gaming Enterprise counsel Emiliano Aguirre floated a state tax on prediction-market winnings to discourage use, which Indian Gaming Association regulatory counsel Elizabeth Homer said remains only a conceptual proposal, while Sen. Angel Charley (D-Acoma Pueblo) questioned whether a tax would actually curb use by people already struggling with addiction. No bill has been introduced yet.
KSFR - 4Industry
Kalshi publicly rejects wash-trading allegations over ether-perpetuals volume
Kalshi published a blog post and statements to press on September 25 disputing analyst claims that its ether perpetual futures market shows signs of wash trading, after a report flagged nearly a million trades clustered around an identical $5,500 size accounting for as much as 58% of the market's daily volume on some days. Kalshi said wash trading is banned under its rulebook and attributed the pattern to its liquidity-provider program, in which market makers post fixed-size resting quotes that many distinct counterparties repeatedly fill; the company said it has not been contacted by the CFTC. The dispute extends the ether-perpetuals volume questions the CFTC itself began reviewing earlier in the week.
Benzinga - 5IndustryCatch-up
Optimove partners with Plaee for turnkey, white-label prediction markets
Player-engagement vendor Optimove announced a partnership September 24 with prediction-market infrastructure provider Plaee, letting Optimove's iGaming and sports-betting operator customers launch a fully branded prediction market, including trading interface, back-office systems, liquidity access and Plaee's existing CFTC-regulated market access via Crypto.com Derivatives North America, without building exchange infrastructure themselves. The deal is a distribution play rather than a new exchange, aimed at operators who want a faster route into the category as combined industry volume is projected to approach $1 trillion annually by 2030.
GlobeNewswire