SiaPredict DailySeptember 28, 2026
Top line
The Sixth Circuit handed Kalshi a second appellate loss in six weeks, ruling Ohio and Tennessee can enforce their gambling laws against its sports contracts and deepening the circuit split now headed toward the Supreme Court. Scrutiny is broadening beyond the courts too, with FDIC officials examining Polymarket's bank-failure wagers and a New Mexico legislative panel pressing the case that prediction markets are eroding tribal gaming revenue. Regulators turned their attention to equity-linked event contracts this week, with Reuters reporting the SEC and CFTC are both reviewing how Polymarket's and Kalshi's stock-price wagers fit within existing swap and security-based-swap rules, even as neither agency has opened a formal action.
Today's top 5
- 1Industry
Sixth Circuit rules Ohio and Tennessee can regulate Kalshi's sports contracts, deepening circuit split
A unanimous Sixth Circuit panel (Senior Judge Julia Smith Gibbons writing, joined by Judges Eric L. Clay and Rachel S. Bloomekatz) ruled September 25 that Kalshi had not shown its sports-event contracts meet the Commodity Exchange Act's swap definition and, in the alternative, that the CEA does not preempt Ohio's or Tennessee's gambling statutes, affirming denial of Kalshi's Ohio injunction and vacating its Tennessee injunction.
Bloomberg LawSia's Take
This ruling is Kalshi's second federal appellate loss on preemption in weeks, following the Ninth Circuit's August ruling for Nevada, and sharpens the split with the Third Circuit's pro-preemption New Jersey decision that New Jersey has already asked the Supreme Court to review. Ohio and Tennessee are now clear to resume enforcing their gambling laws against Kalshi's sports contracts.
- 2Industry
Polymarket's bank-failure wagers draw FDIC and Capitol Hill scrutiny
Bloomberg reported September 25 that Polymarket contracts wagering on the failure of Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America have drawn concern from FDIC staff and lawmakers, even though volume on the individual-bank contracts remains modest (a few hundred dollars in many cases, up to the low thousands for names like Deutsche Bank). Senior FDIC staff debated whether the agency's ethics rules needed tightening to bar employees with access to its confidential 'problem banks' list from trading the contracts, concluding existing rules already suffice; FDIC Chairman Travis Hill has separately said he sees value in prediction markets as a monitoring tool but worries about speculation on failure timing. Sen. Elizabeth Warren and CFTC Chairman Michael Selig were also named as following the issue, though neither agency has opened a formal action.
Yahoo Finance (Bloomberg) - 3Regulatory
SEC and CFTC review equity-linked prediction markets as trading tops $220 million
Reuters reported September 28 that traders have wagered more than $220 million across roughly 31,000 stock-related markets on Polymarket International since it launched equity-linked contracts in October 2025, with about 60% of that volume on individual names such as Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple and Tesla and the rest on ETFs and indexes. The SEC declined to comment and the CFTC did not respond to a request for comment, but both agencies said they are reviewing how the contracts fit within existing swap and security-based-swap rules, legal experts told Reuters the platforms operate outside the investor-protection and surveillance regime that governs regulated stock exchanges.
CP24 (Reuters)Sia's Take
Polymarket has seemingly devised a loophole around US regulatory oversight. Polymarket's offshore corporate structure already limits US regulators' visibility into the underlying trading, a gap this review would need to address before any rule change has teeth.
- 4Industry
Blumenthal and Tonko launch 'Truth and Integrity' campaign for federal prediction-market standards
Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) and Rep. Paul Tonko (D-NY) joined the Public Health Advocacy Institute and Families and Friends of Gamblers in Washington on September 23 to launch "Truth and Integrity: The Movement for Gambling Reform," calling for congressional hearings, federal minimum safety standards, and stronger state enforcement against prediction-market operators. The lawmakers used the event to promote Blumenthal's previously introduced Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act, which would impose federal insider-trading and manipulation rules, bar contracts tied to war, death, or military operations, require age verification and self-exclusion protections, and reverse the CFTC's preemption of state gambling law. Blumenthal said prediction markets "are relentlessly and tirelessly taking advantage of vulnerability to simply make more money"; the American Gaming Association and the prediction-market industry oppose federal intervention, arguing state protections are already adequate.
Casino.orgSia's Take
Congress is looking to take action against "troublesome" contracts which have been previously offered on prediction market platforms. While it remains to be seen if this legislation will see a vote in Congress, the mere action of proposed legislation shows that Congress is taking steps to regulate the prediction market industry.
- 5Industry
NCPG executive director resigns after less than a year, second staff exit over Kalshi partnership
National Council on Problem Gambling executive director Heather Maurer resigned September 28, less than a year into the role, days after NCPG's Director of Programs, Jaime Costello, also stepped down. The departures follow the Michigan Gaming Control Board, the Ohio Casino Control Commission, the Nevada Council on Problem Gambling and Washington's Evergreen Council on Problem Gambling all withdrawing from NCPG this quarter over its two-year, $2 million Kalshi membership commitment, and underline how much reputational strain operator funding is placing on the responsible-gambling advocacy field. NCPG says its programs will continue during the search for Maurer's successor.
SBC AmericasSia's Take
Partnership with the world's largest prediction market operator has seemingly diminished the National Council on Problem Gambling's standing amongst the responsible-gambling advocacy field. While the NCPG says its program's will continue, partnership with Kalshi has proven costly for this non-regulatory oversight body.