SiaPredict DailyOctober 1, 2026

Today's top 5

1. 1
   Regulatory

   CFTC sends event-contract swap definition rule and casino-gambling carve-out to the White House

   On September 28 the CFTC sent two actions to OIRA: a proposed rule (RIN 3038-AF82) that would bring event contracts within the swap definition, and an interim final rule (RIN 3038-AF81) excluding casino-style gambling products. Neither has been published in the Federal Register. The final text will determine how sports contracts are treated and whether existing open positions get transition relief.

   crypto.news

   Sia's Take

   These actions are the first concrete steps taken by the CFTC to clearly define the difference between swaps and casino-style gambling products. Rule 3038-AF82, for the first time, brings event contracts under the definition of a swap and places them solely under the regulatory purview of the CFTC. Rule 3038-AF81, for the first time, explicitly bars prediction market operators from providing casino-style gambling products. While the final text of the rules has not yet been published, this action further solidifies the CFTC's stance of maintaining sole jurisdiction over regulatory oversight of prediction markets while, for the first time, clearly stating the casino-style gambling products DO NOT fall under CFTC oversight. Any prediction market operators offering casino-style gambling products may expose themselves to potential oversight from other state, local and federal regulatory authorities.

2. 2
   RegulatoryCatch-up

   Sixth Circuit rules states can regulate Kalshi sports contracts under Ohio and Tennessee gambling law

   The Sixth Circuit vacated an injunction in Tennessee and upheld denial of one in Ohio on September 25, rejecting Kalshi's argument that its sports contracts are automatically preempted swaps. It deepens the split with the Third Circuit's April ruling for Kalshi and raises the odds of Supreme Court review. State enforcement in both states can now proceed.

   CoinDesk

   Sia's Take

   This action by the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals is yet another instance of divergent opinions from appellate courts when it comes to oversight of prediction markets. It remains to be seen whether this order will go into effect or if it will ultimately be stayed by the Supreme Court. This matter will ultimately be resolved by the United States Supreme Court, most likely in the next Supreme Court term.

3. 3
   RegulatoryCatch-up

   New York sues Polymarket for unlicensed gambling and seeks a geoblock

   New York is the third jurisdiction to sue Polymarket after Wisconsin and Kentucky. It seeks a judicial geoblock, forfeiture of gains, restitution to users and civil penalties of three times profits.

   Card Player

   Sia's Take

   Polymarket has stated that the State of New York lacks authority over federally regulated exchanges and has countersued. This matter will ultimately be resolved by the United States Supreme Court, most likely in the next term.

4. 4
   Industry

   Polymarket introduces sportsbook-style consumer safeguards as calls for regulation grow

   Polymarket rolled out consumer protections and anti-addiction measures on Wednesday as policymakers push for tighter oversight. Operators adopting sportsbook-style controls may strengthen their position with regulators and in state litigation.

   CNN

   Sia's Take

   This action is an example of a major prediction market operator taking preemptive action by rolling out a set of consumer protections and anti-addiction measures without being directly required to by a regulator. This preemptive action is a great step in curbing questions from regulators and regulatory insiders prior to specific rules or guidance regarding consumer protections being issues by a state/local or federal regulatory body.

5. 5
   Industry

   Kalshi and Polymarket volume figures draw scrutiny as both explore moves toward public markets

   CNBC reports that trading volumes on some Kalshi and Polymarket products are raising questions amid rapid growth. Polymarket is reportedly raising at a valuation above $20 billion and Kalshi is reportedly in talks at $40 billion, so volume accuracy matters for any listing disclosure.

   CNBC