SiaPredict DailyOctober 5, 2026
Top line
Nevada told the Ninth Circuit that pending CFTC rulemaking cannot change the statutory reading behind its loss, while the Supreme Court opens its term with three petitions on whether the Commodity Exchange Act displaces state gambling law. Operators should plan for the split between circuits to stay unresolved well into the new term. Kalshi moved to end its volume incentive program under regulatory scrutiny, Nevada's chair restated that licensing is the price of entry, and two large casino operators explained why they are staying out. Federal preemption litigation now runs on two tracks at once. The CFTC is pushing event-contract rulemaking toward the White House as the Sixth Circuit's ruling widens the appellate split.
Today's top 6
- 1Regulatory
Nevada opposes Kalshi's Ninth Circuit rehearing petition and rejects a delay for CFTC rulemaking
Nevada, represented by Mayer Brown, filed its opposition to Kalshi's petition for rehearing en banc and argued the panel's decision rested on statutory text, so the CFTC's two pending proposals would not change the analysis. Kalshi had asked on September 25 that proceedings be held pending that rulemaking. For compliance teams, the filing signals states will treat any CFTC swap-definition rule as legally irrelevant to existing circuit holdings.
CasinoBeats - 2RegulatoryCatch-up
Supreme Court term opens with three petitions on whether federal law preempts state gambling law for sports event contracts
Petitions from Robinhood (from the Ninth Circuit's Nevada ruling) and Crypto.com have responses due October 14 and 15, and New Jersey's petition from the Third Circuit's ruling for Kalshi has a response due November 9 after an extension. The Court has not yet agreed to hear any of them. A grant would be the first step toward resolving the split between the Third and Ninth Circuits.
Prediction News - 3IndustryCatch-up
Kalshi tells the CFTC it will end its Volume Incentive Program no earlier than October 13
Kalshi filed with the CFTC to terminate the program, moving the end date up from October 1, 2027. The filing follows a CFTC Division of Market Oversight warning in August that volume-linked incentives can encourage wash trading and press reports on repeated trades in ether perpetual futures. Kalshi denies wash trading and says it has not been contacted by the CFTC. Teams running market-maker or rebate programs should expect the same questions.
The Block - 4IndustryCatch-up
CBS News names Kalshi its prediction market partner for 2026 midterm election coverage
CBS News will incorporate Kalshi market-based forecasts into its midterm coverage, joining Kalshi's existing arrangements with CNN, CNBC, the Associated Press and Fox News Media. Mainstream media distribution deepens as election contracts draw attention. It also raises the visibility of election-contract pricing ahead of November.
World Casino Directory - 5IndustryCatch-up
CFTC sends two event-contract proposals to the White House, one defining event contracts as swaps and one excluding casino-style products
Reports describe two proposals sent to OIRA for review: one would define event contracts as swaps, the other would exclude casino-style gambling products. The move follows two appellate losses on preemption and would give the CFTC a rulemaking basis for its jurisdiction argument. Operators should treat contract design as the compliance line, since the exclusion is aimed at casino-style structures.
iGaming Business - 6IndustryCatch-up
Sixth Circuit rules Ohio and Tennessee may apply gambling laws to Kalshi sports contracts
The panel, with Judge Julia Smith Gibbons writing, held Kalshi had not shown its sports-event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, and that the Act would not preempt the state laws even if they were. The ruling deepens the split with the Ninth Circuit's decision last month and points toward Supreme Court review. Multi-state operators should plan for continued state enforcement exposure.
Sportico