SiaPredict DailyOctober 9, 2026

Today's top 3

1. 1
   Regulatory

   NFL files Supreme Court amicus brief backing states in the sports-contract jurisdiction fight

   The NFL filed an amicus brief on October 8 supporting New Jersey's petition for review, arguing the CFTC has not answered its sports-wagering concerns and that federally regulated platforms face weaker oversight than state operators. Former CFTC Chair Gary Gensler and former Sen. Chris Dodd also filed briefs arguing Congress did not move sports-betting jurisdiction to the CFTC.

   CoinDesk

   Sia's Take

   This week has seen a string of outside entities (sports leagues, tribal gaming commissions, etc.) begin to publicly take sides in the fight over oversight of the prediction market sector. While the decision will ultimately sit with the United States Supreme Court, input from major players may have a near-term operational impact on spot contracts offered by prediction markets, especially in the sports and political contract space. The Court has not yet decided whether to hear the case, but the breadth of filings raises the odds that the circuit split is taken up sooner rather than later.

2. 2
   Industry

   NBA commissioner says league wants access to prediction market data to detect manipulation

   NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said having access to prediction market data can help the league catch insider trading behavior. The comment comes after the the NFL filed an amicus brief to the Supreme Court on Thursday, supporting New Jersey regulators and asserting that sports contracts on prediction markets fall under gambling, not financial swaps, which are regulated at the federal level. “Whether it’s called a prediction market, whether it’s sports betting, it’s the same issues for our league, and I think for all the leagues, there’s issues around integrity first and foremost,” he told CNBC.

   CNBC
3. 3
   Industry

   Kalshi leads prediction markets’ $3 million effort to fight off state regulations

   Kalshi's lobbying and spending demonstrates a push to gain state-level influence, especially in states spearheading prediction market regulation. So far in 2026, Kalshi, its competitor Polymarket and the Coalition for Prediction Markets have spent at least $3 million on lobbying and campaign contributions across the federal and state levels. According to IRS filings reviewed by OpenSecrets, in the first half of 2026, Kalshi gave $147,500 to the Republican Attorneys General Association and $170,000 to the Democratic Attorneys General Association. Kalshi has also donated directly to some attorneys general – including the super PAC supporting Ken Paxton’s run for Senate in Texas and the campaigns of Vermont’s Charity Clark, Oregon’s Dan Rayfield and Florida’s James Utheimer.

   Rome Sentinel

   Sia's Take

   While Kalshi and other licensed prediction market operators steadfastly maintain that they should only be regulated at the federal level, these actions show that they are seeking to peddle influence at the state level should higher courts not rule in their favor.