SiaPredict DailyOctober 20, 2026
Top line
Missouri is now the live front, with Crypto.com and Novig in federal court and the other operators holding their fire. In Illinois, the October 2 preliminary injunction for Kalshi, Coinbase and the CFTC is back in the news and first criminal case centered on prediction-market bets is proceeding toward trial.
Today's top 5
- 1Regulatory
Novig and Crypto.com sue Missouri over sports event contract cease-and-desist orders
Novig's exchange operator sued the state in the Eastern District of Missouri while Crypto.com's exchange sued the state in the Western District of Missouri. Both suits argue that the Commodity Exchange Act gives the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets. Crypto.com also argues Missouri's constitution allows only two untethered mobile sports betting licenses and both are taken. Operators that have not sued still face the Attorney General's choice of exiting the state or seeking a Missouri Gaming Commission license.
SBC AmericasSia's Take
Prediction market operators are taking an increasingly aggressive stance against state-level regulatory restrictions. Given recent developments, anticipate that additional licensed operators will file similar lawsuits in Missouri and other jurisdictions to preserve their market access while these preemption disputes proceed in federal court. In the interim, operators should prioritize the implementation of geofencing and other robust compliance measures to navigate the evolving patchwork of state and local requirements.
- 2RegulatoryCatch-up
Illinois ruling for Kalshi and the CFTC resurfaces as the circuit split widens
On October 2, Judge Martha Pacold of the Northern District of Illinois ruled in favor of federal oversight of prediction markets, siding with the CFTC against state-level authority. By partially granting preliminary-injunction motions filed by the CFTC, Kalshi and Coinbase, with a follow-up injunction deadline set for October 29, the decision stands in direct opposition to the Sixth Circuit's September 25 Ohio ruling.
CasinoBeatsSia's Take
The recent ruling by the federal court in the Northern District of Illinois deepens the existing appellate split, significantly increasing the likelihood of ultimate resolution by the Supreme Court.
- 3Industry
‘It really would open the door’: Lawyers see Maduro betting case as test for future prosecutions
The first criminal case centered on prediction-market bets is proceeding toward trial, and white-collar lawyers say it could result in an uptick of prosecutions involving an industry that’s enjoying explosive growth. Prosecutors say U.S. Army soldier Gannon Van Dyke used confidential information about the capture of then-Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro to bet on the rendition through Polymarket. Van Dyke allegedly placed $33,034 in bets, for a total payout of more than $400,000, according to prosecutors.
POLITICOSia's Take
The defense in the ongoing prediction-market case has filed a motion to dismiss, arguing that prediction-market contracts do not qualify as “swaps” and therefore fall outside the scope of the Commodity Exchange Act. This motion places a critical decision before U.S. District Judge Margaret Garnett: a ruling in the defendant’s favor would significantly limit the DOJ's authority to bring similar enforcement actions, while a decision to allow the charges to stand would likely clear the path for a broader wave of federal prosecutions against operators.
- 4RegulatoryCatch-up
Coinbase agrees with Michigan regulator to halt new sports event contracts
The Michigan Gaming Control Board announced October 7 that Coinbase Financial Markets agreed by stipulation to stop listing new sports event contracts for Michigan customers and close open positions by October 10. The state agreed to withhold enforcement while Coinbase complies and related Sixth Circuit appeals proceed.
Michigan Gaming Control BoardSia's Take
The existing provision does not specify if Michigan holds the power to oversee platforms that are registered with the CFTC.
- 5IndustryCatch-up
Study estimates prediction markets could cost gaming up to $39.4B
SBC Americas reported on October 12 on a KlasRobinson study that estimates annual losses of $3.6B for tribes and $14.3B for commercial casinos and online operators, $17.9B in total, with a high case of $39.4B. Industry-funded estimates are directional, but they shape the lobbying case from tribes and incumbent operators.
SBC Americas