SiaPredict DailyOctober 21, 2026
Top line
Utah has opened a new front by suing Kalshi together with Susquehanna, the first state action to name a market maker alongside the exchange. The theory moves the dispute from whether event contracts are preempted to who profits when users lose. Elsewhere prediction market platforms are ignoring Ohio's legal threats and Google has banned prediction market targeting ads in select states.
Today's top 4
- 1Regulatory
Utah sues Kalshi and Susquehanna firms, calling event contracts a gambling operation
Utah Attorney General Derek Brown filed a civil suit on October 20 against five Kalshi entities, Susquehanna International Group and Susquehanna Government Products, alleging an illegal gambling business. The state casts KalshiEX as the operator and Kalshi Trading and the Susquehanna firms as a betting house taking positions against users. Utah seeks disgorgement, damages, an order blocking sports, election, politics, culture and "mentions" contracts, and stricter geolocation, and estimates Kalshi collected between $30.6 million and $61.2 million in fees from Utah accounts through October 19. Market makers and distribution partners should treat this as a signal that counterparty exposure, not only platform registration, is now in scope for state enforcement.
The BlockSia's Take
Market makers and distribution partners should treat this as a signal that counterparty exposure, not only platform registration, is now in scope for state enforcement. As regulatory scrutiny intensifies across multiple jurisdictions, the focus of enforcement actions is shifting from the primary exchange interface to the broader ecosystem of liquidity providers and service conduits. This expansion means that entities facilitating market depth or distributing predictive instruments must now conduct rigorous due diligence on their exposure to state-level gambling statutes, as regulators are increasingly willing to look past the "federal-preemption" defense to target the downstream participants of these contracts.
- 2Industry
Prediction market platforms ignoring Ohio’s legal threats
The nation’s largest prediction market platforms are all ignoring Ohio’s legal threats to shut down their sports trading sections. The Ohio Casino Control Commission issued cease-and-desist letters to 10 companies operating in the state that allow consumers to “trade” on sporting events. Each had a deadline of Friday to respond and confirm it had shut down those markets. As of the end of business on Friday, most platforms were still up and unchanged.
Ohio Capital JournalSia's Take
Ohio is set to spearhead enforcement efforts against prediction market operators that fail to adhere to state and local regulatory guidance. Licensed and license-pending operators should closely monitor Ohio’s upcoming actions to assess potential risks and identify legal strategies to mitigate enforcement exposure.
- 3Industry
Google Bans Prediction Market Ads Targeting Michigan
Google has barred prediction market advertising targeting Michigan, one of five states excluded under its updated advertising policy, according to Legal Sports Betting. The policy’s approved US target locations exclude Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York and Ohio. The restriction concerns advertising for prediction market products, including markets tied to sports outcomes. Google added a dedicated prediction markets section to its advertising policies. According to the report, Google said the update reflects the “inherent complexities, speculative nature, and unique regulatory classification involved in trading Prediction Market contracts.”
Play MichiganSia's Take
Google has begun taking enforcement action based on state-level regulatory pressure, despite the ongoing legal uncertainty surrounding the jurisdictional standing of these mandates. Prediction market operators should closely monitor these developments, as Google’s advertising policies may shift rapidly in response to future federal interventions or clarifying judicial rulings in this space.
- 4Industry
Polymarket Removes Cornell 7 Market After Blowback
Polymarket and its athlete endorsers came under fire for a market on the company’s international platform that allowed users to bet on whether any of the seven male defendants accused of raping a Cornell student will be charged with a felony sex crime. Following initial publication of this story, the company removed the market. The market, which was not available on Polymarket’s U.S. app, was first made available Sept. 30.
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