SiaPredict DailyAugust 10, 2026
Top line
New York is now seeking a minimum of $36 billion from Kalshi in an illegal-gambling suit, and the CFTC separately ordered exchanges to stop displaying event-contract prices in bookmaker-style odds, together showing how granular and fragmented oversight of the sector has become. Kalshi is leaning further into its own surveillance story, signing a multi-year deal with Nasdaq days after a Fortune investigation flagged how Trump family ties to both Kalshi and Polymarket complicate that narrative. Trump Media itself retreated from the category, scrapping its TruthPredict tie-up with Crypto.com, even as DraftKings' predictions volume and Polymarket's Yankees sponsorship show demand has not slowed.
Today's top 7
- 1RegulatoryCatch-up
New York sues Kalshi for a minimum of $36 billion, calling it an illegal gambling operation
Gov. Kathy Hochul and Attorney General Letitia James announced a state Supreme Court suit alleging Kalshi has operated without a New York State Gaming Commission license since ignoring an October 2025 cease-and-desist, let 18-to-20-year-olds trade despite the state's 21-plus mobile-wagering age floor, and avoided related taxes. The filing asks the court to halt Kalshi's New York operations, order forfeiture of illegal gains, impose fines of three times those gains, and fund restitution to affected users. It is the largest dollar figure any state has attached to a prediction-market enforcement action to date, and a CFTC bid to pause the case has already been denied once in federal court.
NY Attorney General - 2Regulatory
CFTC tells exchanges to stop displaying event-contract prices as moneyline odds
The CFTC's Division of Market Oversight and Market Participants Division sent a letter (PR 9278-26) warning DCMs, FCMs, and introducing brokers that American-style plus/minus odds formatting for event contracts "is likely to mislead market participants" about the product's nature and can obscure market-depth signals. Recipients must switch to nominal or percentage-based pricing and confirm receipt by August 31, 2026. It is a narrow but concrete compliance deadline that display-facing platforms, not just Kalshi and Polymarket, need to act on this month.
CFTC - 3Industry
Trump Media and Crypto.com scrap TruthPredict prediction-market plans
Trump Media and Crypto.com unwound their October 2025 tie-up to bring prediction markets to Truth Social, along with a related $6.42 billion CRO treasury plan and an ETF-servicing arrangement, citing shifting market conditions rather than regulatory pressure. Crypto.com will instead pursue a lighter marketing arrangement promoting its own prediction-market products to Truth Social users. The retreat removes a politically charged potential entrant just as scrutiny of Trump family ties to Kalshi and Polymarket intensifies.
Bloomberg - 4Industry
DraftKings' predictions business hits $11 billion in annualized volume, backed by a fresh $200-300 million investment
DraftKings told investors its predictions offering has topped 600,000 customers year to date and that annualized trading volume grew nearly fivefold, from $2.3 billion to $11 billion, between April and July. The company plans to invest an additional $200 million to $300 million into the business in 2026, on top of launching its own exchange, DKeX, and securing futures-commission-merchant approval in July. It is a concrete signal that a mainstream sportsbook operator, not just Kalshi or Robinhood, can scale event contracts quickly once it owns its own infrastructure.
Yahoo Finance - 5Industry
Kalshi signs multi-year market-surveillance deal with Nasdaq
Kalshi will implement Nasdaq Market Surveillance across its prediction markets and perpetual-futures products, giving it real-time monitoring for manipulation, abuse, and insider trading, plus support for CFTC reporting requirements. The move mirrors surveillance infrastructure used by major global exchanges and lands as Kalshi faces mounting scrutiny over trading integrity. Compliance teams should expect Kalshi to point to this infrastructure as evidence of self-policing in ongoing state and federal litigation.
Kalshi - 6Industry
Kalshi's insider-trading crackdown collides with Trump family ties across the industry
A Fortune investigation detailed how Kalshi has built stock-market-style surveillance to flag and refer suspected insider trading, including cases involving a former congressman and a MrBeast employee, even as Donald Trump Jr. serves as a paid strategic advisor to Kalshi while also sitting on Polymarket's advisory board through his venture firm, 1789 Capital. The piece cites a Columbia Law study finding suspected insider traders won at nearly a 70% clip for an estimated $143 million in profits. It illustrates a structural conflict-of-interest question that compliance and communications teams at both platforms will keep facing regardless of how the underlying enforcement cases resolve.
Fortune - 7Industry
Polymarket becomes the New York Yankees' official prediction-market partner
Polymarket will get branding inside Yankee Stadium, including LED signage and a rotating display behind home plate, for the remainder of the 2026 MLB season under a new sponsorship deal. It is Polymarket's most prominent US sports-venue tie-in yet and comes as the company is separately reported to be in talks to raise roughly $1 billion at a valuation above $20 billion. Expect rival platforms to keep chasing marquee sports sponsorships as a distribution strategy alongside data and integrity partnerships.
PR Newswire