SiaPredict DailyAugust 12, 2026

Today's top 4

1. 1
   Regulatory

   CFTC invokes emergency authority to keep Kalshi operating amid New York's $36B suit

   On August 11, the CFTC invoked Section 8a(9) of the Commodity Exchange Act, only its second use of that emergency power since 1980, to order KalshiEX to keep operating nationwide under the CEA's Core Principles, finding that New York's requested restraining order could cause a "major market disturbance." Chairman Michael Selig said "Congress did not intend for derivatives exchanges to be regulated under a patchwork of state gaming laws". The order does not resolve New York's underlying state-court suit, which seeks a minimum of $36 billion and remains pending. For compliance teams, it is the clearest sign yet that the CFTC will use extraordinary tools to keep a registered DCM running mid-litigation rather than wait for the jurisdictional fight to resolve in court.

   CFTC

   Sia's Take

   The CTFC under the Trump administration is showing that they are firmly behind prediction markets operating nationally as federally regulated entities. This action shows that the CFTC is standing firmly behind prediction markets operating in all 50 states and is claiming sole jurisdiction over such markets. For those currently operating a licensed prediction market, the CFTC is sending a clear message that they should proceed with their operations in a business-as-usual manner, with little regard to actions taken against them by individual states.

2. 2
   Regulatory

   FlightAware sues Kalshi over flight-cancellation prediction markets

   FlightAware filed suit against Kalshi on August 10 in the Southern District of New York (1:26-cv-06824), alleging breach of contract, trademark infringement, and unfair competition over Kalshi's use of FlightAware's data and name to settle contracts on flight-cancellation rates after Kalshi self-certified FlightAware as its outcome-determining source with the CFTC in July. FlightAware says its terms barred commercial and gambling use of its data, and that it revoked Kalshi's API access and sent cease-and-desist notices that Kalshi met with a nominative-fair-use defense and a non-endorsement disclaimer rather than pulling the markets. It adds a third-party data-licensing and IP dispute to Kalshi's existing docket of state-gambling-law fights, a reminder that settlement-source agreements, not just gaming law, are now a distinct exposure for event-contract operators.

   CoinDesk

   Sia's Take

   While this lawsuit is civil in nature and not criminal, data sourcing for new contract opportunities by established prediction markets will be an ongoing issue which markets will regularly face as they do not have native data sources. Licensed prediction markets will need to have ironclad data privacy and data security agreements in place in order to expand their contract offerings.

3. 3
   Industry

   Polymarket hires former Nasdaq risk chief and former Robinhood compliance chief

   Polymarket hired former Nasdaq executive Paul Jordan as chief risk officer and former Robinhood executive Megan McGrath as chief compliance officer, adding to a bench of Coinbase alumni already handling regulatory affairs and investigations. The hires land as Polymarket seeks a funding round above a $20 billion valuation and works to convert its international volume into a scaled, CFTC-regulated US exchange, reading as an attempt to buy the same institutional-credibility signal Kalshi has built through its own surveillance and compliance partnerships rather than a response to any specific enforcement action against Polymarket itself.

   Benzinga

   Sia's Take

   Polymarket's actions show that major licensed prediction market firms are taking compliance seriously. Investing in a comprehensive, efficient and tech forward compliance program will put any licensed prediction market well ahead of the curve and allow them to effortlessly absorb any functional changes local governments or the federal government make, with little disruption to the functioning of their open markets.

4. 4
   IndustryCatch-up

   Election officials warn prediction-market odds could undercut confidence in midterm results

   Election administrators, including Los Angeles County registrar-recorder Dean Logan, told Votebeat they are increasingly worried that Kalshi and Polymarket odds diverging from actual results, as happened in a June mayoral primary, fuel public suspicion of normal ballot processing, with nearly $200 million already traded on 2026 midterm outcomes across the two platforms. Officials also flagged manipulation risk from anyone with money able to trade, unlike polls limited to actual voters, and noted most state election-betting laws predate modern prediction markets and remain legally untested; Delaware County, Pennsylvania has already barred poll workers from trading on races they administer. It is a distinct reputational and integrity front, beyond the CFTC-state jurisdictional fight, worth tracking heading into November.

   Votebeat

   Sia's Take

   Prediction markets are facing scrutiny on multiple fronts, primarily both in their sports-related contracts and political-leaning contracts. While the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals decision in Clark v CFTC (2025) cemented prediction markets' ability to trade political contracts, the ruling was narrow stating that the specific action by the CFTC was arbitrary, capricious and legally insufficient. Similar actions against other prediction markets may be brought in the future and result in vastly different rulings. Having proper anti-collusion controls in place will effectively bolster the position of prediction markets in any new cases which are brought against them.