SiaPredict DailyAugust 14, 2026

Today's top 6

1. 1
   Regulatory

   Washington court orders Kalshi to geofence out of sports, election, and entertainment contracts

   A King County Superior Court judge issued a final order finding Kalshi likely violated the Washington Gambling Act and Consumer Protection Act, requiring it to stop offering contracts on sports, elections, politics, entertainment, culture, technology, and science to Washington residents. Kalshi must implement an IP and residency-based geofence by August 19 and a more robust multi-source geofencing system by September 2; commodities, climate, economics, and finance contracts are unaffected. The Washington Court of Appeals denied Kalshi's request to stay the order pending appeal, so compliance teams should treat the September 2 deadline as live rather than provisional.

   Washington State Attorney General's Office

   Sia's Take

   This action by King County is yet another battle between the federal government and state governments over regulating prediction markets and, more specifically, sports related contracts. While this action will have little immediate impact, it shows that state-level regulators are serious about pursuing new actions against prediction markets and, more specifically, sports and election contracts.

2. 2
   Regulatory

   Baltimore sues Kalshi and Polymarket over unlicensed sports wagering

   Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott and the City Council filed separate suits on August 13 in the Circuit Court for Baltimore City, alleging Kalshi and Polymarket operate as unlicensed sportsbooks under the city's Consumer Protection Ordinance and misrepresent themselves to customers as purely federally regulated. The city is seeking civil penalties, injunctive relief, restitution, and disgorgement. It is the first municipal-level suit against the two platforms, opening a city-government enforcement track alongside the existing state attorney general and CFTC fights.

   Covers.com

   Sia's Take

   Building on the action taken by the New York City Council yesterday, Baltimore is another local jurisdiction that is taking legal action against prediction markets operating as unlicensed sportsbooks. While this action will most likely have little immediate impact, it is yet another example of local jurisdictions taking action to regulate prediction markets and, more specifically, sports contracts.

3. 3
   Regulatory

   CFTC warns prediction-market incentive program filings are 'substantially deficient'

   The CFTC issued guidance on August 12 saying it is receiving more incentive-program filings from prediction-market platforms but that filing quality has declined, leaving the agency unable to confirm adequate notice and that a compliance review occurred. It flagged high-volume trader rewards as encouraging trading solely to hit volume targets, and market-maker programs that guarantee net proceeds or cover losses through stipends and rebates, as both raising wash-trading and manipulation risk. It is the CFTC's second prediction-market compliance warning in two months, following June's proposed rulemaking, and gives compliance teams a concrete list of filing defects to audit against before the next incentive program launch.

   CoinDesk

   Sia's Take

   Wile the CFTC under the Trump administration has been very lenient on prediction markets, this action shows that, sometime in the near future, the CTFC will take stronger action against prediction markets. The current regulatory framework around prediction markets remains loose and compliance teams within prediction markets need to remain vigilant and robust in order to adapt to any and all regulatory changes.

4. 4
   Industry

   Kalshi in talks with Sequoia and Wellington for $750 million raise at $40 billion valuation

   Kalshi is in advanced talks with Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management to raise at least $750 million at a $40 billion valuation, nearly double the $22 billion mark it set in its May Series F. Wellington would be a first-time Kalshi investor. The reported round comes as Kalshi has told investors it is weighing an IPO as early as late 2026 or 2027, a timeline complicated by the ongoing state suits and the Washington and Baltimore actions landing the same week.

   CoinDesk

   Sia's Take

   This potential investment shows the strength that the market sees in the staying power of prediction markets. While regulatory intervention remains the most imminent threat to the continued operation of prediction markets, such investments will help bolster their standing as legitimate financial insitutions.

5. 5
   IndustryCatch-up

   Robinhood's event-contract revenue jumps to $156 million in Q2, from $10 million a year earlier

   Robinhood's event-contract transaction revenue grew from about $10 million in Q2 2025 to $156 million in Q2 2026, now roughly 20% of total transaction revenue and second only to options. Monthly trading volume on the product hit $3.9 billion in May, up 22% from April. The trajectory shows a brokerage that entered event contracts later than Kalshi or Polymarket scaling the product into a material revenue line within a year, a data point worth watching for other retail brokerages weighing entry.

   The Motley Fool

   Sia's Take

   This news shows the virality of prediction markets and the profit potential for established financial institutions to get involved in this space.

6. 6
   RegulatoryCatch-up

   France orders ISPs to block Polymarket nationwide; Polymarket to challenge in court

   France's Autorite Nationale des Jeux ordered internet providers to block Polymarket nationwide on July 16, citing addictive product design, manipulation risk, and the platform's continued operation without a French gambling license despite a prior transaction ban; the regulator said Polymarket drew over 578,000 French visits in June alone. Polymarket announced on July 22 it will challenge the block in French courts, arguing it is an information platform rather than a gambling operator. The outcome will likely set a template other EU regulators, including Germany and the Netherlands, look to replicate or distinguish from.

   FinanceFeeds

   Sia's Take

   This action by the Autorite Nationale des Jeux highlights the existential threat that regulators pose to prediction markets. While prediction markets are banned in many international jurisdictions, many users have found workarounds to accessing them in banned jurisdictions. This action shows that the onus will ultimately be placed on licensed prediction markets to have appropriate compliance protocols and geoblocking controls in place to prevent their markets from being accessed in banned jurisdictions.