SiaPredict DailyAugust 17, 2026

Today's top 6

1. 1
   RegulatoryCatch-up

   CFTC invokes emergency authority to keep Kalshi operating despite New York's $36 billion lawsuit

   New York Attorney General Letitia James sued Kalshi directly on July 31, alleging an unlicensed gambling operation and seeking nationwide disgorgement and penalties that could total roughly $36 billion. After a federal judge declined to block New York's case on August 4, Kalshi notified the CFTC of a market emergency, and on August 11 the CFTC invoked Section 8a(9) of the Commodity Exchange Act, ordering Kalshi to keep operating nationwide under its Core Principles as a registered exchange. Chairman Michael Selig framed the order as a defense of exclusive federal jurisdiction over derivatives exchanges, but it does not resolve New York's underlying state-court case, which remains pending.

   CFTC
2. 2
   RegulatoryCatch-up

   Washington judge issues final order requiring Kalshi to geofence sports and election contracts by September 2

   King County Superior Court Judge John McHale entered a final order on August 13 requiring Kalshi to stop offering, accepting, or advertising contracts on sports, elections, politics, entertainment, culture, and technology/science to Washington residents, building on a July 21 preliminary injunction that found Kalshi ran an illegal gambling business under state law. Kalshi must deploy IP-and-residency geofencing by August 19 and a more robust multi-source system by September 2, while commodities, climate, economics, and finance contracts remain unaffected. It is the first state-court merits ruling against Kalshi to produce a concrete compliance deadline rather than a jurisdictional remand, giving other state regulators a template for geofencing-based enforcement.

   Washington State Attorney General
3. 3
   RegulatoryCatch-up

   Baltimore sues Kalshi and Polymarket, alleging unlicensed sports wagering under the city's consumer-protection ordinance

   The City of Baltimore filed companion consumer-protection suits on August 13 against Kalshi, naming distribution partners Robinhood, Webull, and Coinbase, and separately against Polymarket, arguing their sports contracts function as an unlicensed sportsbook operating without a Maryland wagering license. The complaints seek statutory penalties, restitution, disgorgement, and an injunction barring the platforms from serving Baltimore residents, adding a city-level track to the state and federal preemption fights already underway in Washington and New York. It signals municipal governments, not just states, are now willing to bring their own gambling-law theories against prediction-market operators and their retail distribution partners.

   The Block
4. 4
   Industry

   DraftKings and FanDuel commit $200 million-plus each to prediction markets ahead of NFL season

   DraftKings plans an incremental $200-300 million in prediction-markets marketing, product, and technology spend in fiscal 2026, and Flutter, FanDuel's parent, has said its own category expenses will top $200 million, together implying more than $500 million in combined lost adjusted EBITDA the two operators are willing to absorb. The spending confirms prediction markets have moved from an experimental side bet to a strategic priority on par with core sports betting for the two largest US sportsbook operators. For compliance teams, it also means retail-facing marketing intensity around event contracts, a category regulators are already scrutinizing, will keep increasing heading into the NFL season.

   BettorsInsider
5. 5
   IndustryCatch-up

   Kalshi in advanced talks to raise $750 million-plus at a $40 billion valuation

   Kalshi is in advanced discussions with Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management for a round of at least $750 million, nearly double the $22 billion valuation it set in its May Series F. Sequoia would deepen an existing stake, while Wellington, a $1.3 trillion asset manager, would make its first Kalshi investment, and CEO Tarek Mansour has said the company is weighing a 2027 IPO. The talks show investor appetite has so far outpaced the regulatory overhang from the concurrent New York, Washington, and Baltimore actions.

   CoinDesk
6. 6
   IndustryCatch-up

   Kalshi referred 32 suspected insider traders to the CFTC in a single quarter

   Kalshi disclosed it referred 32 suspected insider-trading cases to the CFTC in the three months ending June 2026, after opening more than 200 internal investigations in the first half of the year using trading-pattern analysis and open-source intelligence. The CFTC has not said how many of those referrals it plans to pursue, and the disclosure lands as the agency's own enforcement capacity remains constrained. It underscores how much of the day-to-day market-integrity workload on event contracts currently falls on exchanges' internal surveillance teams rather than the regulator itself.

   Crypto Briefing