SiaPredict DailyAugust 18, 2026

Today's top 3

1. 1
   RegulatoryCatch-up

   Novig sues Wisconsin's attorney general and gaming administrator over sports event contracts

   Ludlow Exchange LLC, doing business as Novig, sued Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul and state gaming administrator John Dillett on August 15 in federal court, one week after it began offering sports event contracts to Wisconsin residents, and sought expedited consideration of a preliminary injunction. Novig argues its contracts are CFTC-regulated swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, pre-empting the same theory Wisconsin used in April to sue Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, Crypto.com and Coinbase over the same statute. It shows a smaller, newer entrant now using the offensive-preemption playbook Kalshi and Novig itself pioneered against New York, rather than waiting for a cease-and-desist letter to arrive first.

   The Block

   Sia's Take

   As state and local jurisdictions continue to seek regulatory injunctions against prediction markets, this action shows that both established and emerging prediction market firms are not sitting on the sidelines. They are being proactive with their legal strategies as well, taking the fight to state and local jurisdictions early. Having an ironclad legal and compliance framework will serve emerging prediction markets in these early fights against state and local jurisdictions' efforts to curtail prediction markets in their localities.

2. 2
   Industry

   Polymarket's US exchange takes self-certified parlay contracts out of beta

   Polymarket's CFTC-registered US exchange began processing parlay-style trades, branded Combinatorial Athletic Outcome Contracts, in a beta test that has already logged 7.4 million dollars in volume across combinations of up to ten legs. The launch lands roughly ten weeks after Polymarket self-certified the product with the CFTC in May, a gap during which Kalshi's own parlay volume grew from 4.77 billion dollars in May to 13.78 billion dollars in July.

   InGame

   Sia's Take

   This is a reminder for compliance teams that a CFTC self-certification date and a public launch date can diverge by months, and that the competitive cost of that gap is measurable.

3. 3
   Industry

   NFL event-contract volume jumps 324% to $167.8 million as preseason trading opens

   NFL-linked event contract volume across Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket Global reached 167.8 million dollars in the week ending August 16, up from 39.5 million dollars the prior week, with preseason game contracts alone accounting for 143.5 million dollars of the total. Kalshi took roughly three-quarters of that volume, extending its lead over Polymarket heading into the category's biggest annual stretch. The jump is an early read on how much flow the NFL regular season will pull toward event contracts just as DraftKings and FanDuel ramp their own marketing spend.

   DeFi Rate

   Sia's Take

   With the World Cup coming to an end in July, licensed prediction markets were looking for new events to drive volumes up to their blockbuster summer peaks. Most licensed markets believe that the coming NFL season will be the biggest driver of volumes as they close out a record year and many eye IPOs in the near future. While these volumes are essential for licensed prediction markets to continue to justify their massive valuations, many contracts that are driving these volumes have received opposition from sports leagues, including the NFL, which has formally urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to prohibit sports event contracts entirely, specifically targeting micro-events like injuries, penalty calls, and replay reviews. The acute collusion and manipulation risk introduced by such contracts further shows that requisite, robust and verifiable compliance controls will play a key role in such contracts continued execution by assuaging future concerns presented by regulators and will boost faith in the integrity of such markets amongst prediction market users.