SiaPredict DailyAugust 20, 2026

Today's top 7

1. 1
   Regulatory

   CFTC's Innovation Advisory Committee holds inaugural meeting with prediction markets on the agenda

   Chairman Michael Selig convened the first meeting of the reconstituted Innovation Advisory Committee in Washington, with crypto-asset regulation, AI, and prediction markets as the three listed topics; committee members include executives from Kalshi, Polymarket, CME, Cboe, DTCC, and Nasdaq. No rule or order results directly from an advisory-committee session, but the agenda signals which policy questions (state-versus-federal jurisdiction, product eligibility) the Chairman is prioritizing as the rulemaking on event contracts continues.

   CFTC

   Sia's Take

   Oversight and, more specifically, jurisdiction over oversight of prediction markets is still an unresolved issue. Meetings such as this show that the CFTC and federal regulatory have no intention of ceding their perceived universal oversight authority of prediction markets.

2. 2
   Regulatory

   Trump says CFTC's Selig is working to bring Hyperliquid into the US "in a fully compliant and legal fashion"

   At an August 19 White House meeting with crypto and prediction-market executives, President Trump said Selig is working to bring the offshore perpetuals platform Hyperliquid into a compliant US framework, though no formal designation, filing, or timeline accompanied the remark. Hyperliquid's HIP-4 prediction-market protocol currently sits entirely outside the CFTC-regulated perimeter that governs Kalshi, Polymarket's US arm, and every other designated contract market; compliance teams should watch for whether this becomes an actual registration pathway rather than a passing comment.

   The Block

   Sia's Take

   The ever-expanding regulatory environment surrounding prediction markets is rapidly evolving and this is yet another example of that evolution. As new prediction markets emerge, and existing prediction markets expand their market profile, regulators will need to adapt an evolve in-line with market expansion.

3. 3
   RegulatoryCatch-up

   CFTC advisory flags deficient incentive-program filings for event contracts

   The CFTC's Division of Market Oversight issued guidance (Staff Letter No. 26-23) reminding designated contract markets of their obligations when self-certifying market-maker and incentive programs under Regulations 40.5 and 40.6, citing a rising number of event-contract incentive filings with procedural or substantive gaps that impede staff's ability to assess core-principle compliance. Operators running maker-rebate or liquidity-incentive programs on event contracts should expect closer scrutiny of self-certification packages going forward.

   CFTC

   Sia's Take

   This action is yet another example of regulators beginning to take action against specific contracts offered by prediction markets. While they have been hesitant to take action to halt the overall operation of prediction markets as an industry, they have begun regulatory processes by targeting specific contracts which they find to be the most risky and potentially susceptible to market manipulation.

4. 4
   RegulatoryCatch-up

   Kalshi files with CFTC for perpetual futures on a US large-cap equity index and copper

   KalshiEX filed to list US500 (tracking the MerQube US Large Cap Index) and a copper perpetual referencing Pyth's spot feed, extending its perpetuals line beyond the crypto-only BTCPERP contract the CFTC approved in May. The equity-index and commodity expansion pushes Kalshi further into products historically listed on CME's own exchanges, raising the stakes of CME's pending lawsuit challenging the CFTC's authority to approve Kalshi's perpetuals in the first place.

   The Block

   Sia's Take

   Kalshi, Polymarket and other prediction market firms are making rapid moves to expand their product offerings and move into new spaces to provide new services to their existing customers. While this expansion is organic and expected, it does open existing licensed prediction markets to expanded regulatory scrutiny from different regulators due to the nature of these product offerings. It is imperative that licensed prediction markets remain ahead of the curve when establishing their compliance programs to ensure that they are equipt from a compliance perspective for such product expansions.

5. 5
   Industry

   Cantor Fitzgerald opens Kalshi event contracts to roughly 3,000 institutional clients

   Cantor Fitzgerald will act as introducing broker for block trades in Kalshi's CFTC-regulated event contracts, arranging trades away from Kalshi's central order book for its institutional client base, with Susquehanna Predictions pricing the trades and providing liquidity. Cantor said it expects to add trading venues beyond Kalshi over time, a distribution and institutional-access expansion rather than a new license or regulatory filing.

   CoinDesk
6. 6
   IndustryCatch-up

   Kalshi in talks to raise $750 million at a $40 billion valuation

   Kalshi is reportedly in advanced talks with Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management for a raise that would nearly double its valuation from the $22 billion mark reached in May. The reported figure would put Kalshi's valuation roughly double Polymarket's own reported $20 billion-plus fundraising target, underscoring how much institutional capital is still chasing the category even as state litigation continues.

   CoinDesk
7. 7
   Industry

   Polymarket quietly tests parlays in the US as Kalshi banks $25M in parlay taker fees

   Polymarket's US arm has been processing multi-leg sports contracts since August 5 through an API-only beta that has not surfaced in its consumer app, handling $7.4 million in volume across roughly 16,000 trades in its first eleven days. Rival Kalshi generated an estimated $25 million in parlay taker fees over the first 16 days of August alone, underscoring how much fee revenue is concentrated in combo-bet products as both platforms position ahead of the NFL season.

   Bitcoin.com