SiaPredict DailyAugust 28, 2026
Top line
A Ninth Circuit panel handed prediction markets their most consequential courtroom loss yet, ruling that Kalshi's sports event contracts are likely bets rather than federally regulated swaps and clearing the way for Nevada to enforce its gaming laws, a holding that squarely conflicts with the Third Circuit's pro-industry ruling this spring. DraftKings picked up a third prediction-market lawsuit in as many weeks, this one a proposed class action in California, while Kalshi struck a data partnership with The Weather Company and Polymarket's new NFL player-availability contracts drew fresh scrutiny over injury-adjacent settlement terms.
Today's top 4
- 1Regulatory
Ninth Circuit rules Kalshi's sports contracts are likely bets, deepens circuit split with Nevada win
A unanimous three-judge Ninth Circuit panel affirmed a lower court's dissolution of the preliminary injunction that had shielded Kalshi, Crypto.com's NADEX, and Robinhood Derivatives from Nevada Gaming Control Board enforcement, finding the substance of the sports event contracts is sports gambling and that CFTC Regulation 40.11 bars gaming-related contracts on designated contract markets. The ruling directly conflicts with the Third Circuit's April 2026 decision favoring federal preemption, creating a circuit split that raises the odds of Supreme Court review and gives Arizona, Maryland, Tennessee, Ohio, and New York fresh ammunition in their own pending cases. Compliance teams operating in Ninth Circuit states should treat Nevada enforcement as live rather than stayed pending further appeal.
Covers.com - 2RegulatoryCatch-up
DraftKings hit with third prediction-market lawsuit in a week, this one a California class action
A California resident filed a proposed class action against DraftKings, Inc. in the Central District of California alleging its Predictions event contracts are unlicensed sports bets disguised as derivatives, distinct from the pending Chan v. DraftKings class action already proceeding in Massachusetts. The complaint leans on CEO Jason Robins' own public comments that customers do not distinguish between sportsbook betting and Predictions trading, an admission plaintiffs' counsel are likely to keep citing across venues. It is the third such suit naming DraftKings within a week, underscoring that litigation risk is now spreading from Kalshi and Polymarket to sportsbook-operated exchanges.
SBC Americas - 3Industry
Kalshi partners with The Weather Company to harden weather-contract settlement data
Kalshi and The Weather Company announced a partnership under which The Weather Company's enterprise-grade, quality-controlled observation feeds become Kalshi's settlement source for weather and climate contracts, while The Weather Company will surface Kalshi's real-time probabilities on weather.com and its mobile app. The deal responds directly to manipulation concerns in the category, including a suspected tampering incident at a Paris weather station now under investigation, and comes as Kalshi's weather and climate volume has grown roughly 500% year over year toward a $1.1 billion annualized run rate. Operators leaning on single-source data feeds for settlement should expect similar data-integrity partnerships to become a competitive and compliance baseline rather than a differentiator.
Insurance Journal - 4IndustryCatch-up
Polymarket's new NFL player-availability contracts revive injury-incentive debate
Polymarket self-certified new contracts on whether specific NFL players, such as Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, will play or start in given games, contracts it frames around participation rather than injury status. Gaming attorneys quoted on the launch split on whether that framing meaningfully distinguishes the products from the injury-linked contracts the CFTC's pending rulemaking would bar as creating perverse incentives to profit from harm to athletes, since settlement still turns on injury-driven availability. The CFTC has not opposed the self-certified filing, which compliance teams should read as a signal that the agency's current posture leaves considerable latitude for operators to test the edges of the enumerated-activities framework before any rule is final.
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