SiaPredict DailySeptember 3, 2026

Today's top 8

1. 1
   Regulatory

   New Jersey files first Supreme Court petition in prediction-markets litigation

   New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport filed a roughly 332-page petition for certiorari on September 2, asking the Supreme Court to decide whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state regulation of sports-event contracts, and citing the split between the Third Circuit's preemption finding in Kalshi's favor and the Ninth Circuit's August 28th ruling for Nevada. It is the first merits petition filed at the Court in the 2026 wave of prediction-markets cases, and a cert grant would set a nationwide rule that currently varies by circuit.

   NPR

   Sia's Take

   This action by the New Jersey Attorney General's office is the first of many which will, almost certainly, lead to the jurisdictional oversight question of prediction markets ending up in front of the Supreme Court. Compliance offers and legal departments within both licensed and license-pending prediction market operators should watch the outcome of this case closely as it will fundamentally alter the operation and regulatory oversight requirements of prediction market operators.

2. 2
   Regulatory

   Michigan court converts Kalshi restraining order into $500,000-a-day preliminary injunction

   Ingham County Circuit Judge Rosemarie Aquilina converted her earlier TRO into a preliminary injunction against KalshiEX on September 1, calling the company's sports contracts a 'sports betting operation masquerading as an investment opportunity' and citing its acceptance of 18 to 20 year old users, which falls below Michigan's 21 gambling minimum. The order requires state-licensed geofencing of Michigan users covering trading, funding and advertising, and carries a $500,000-per-day penalty for noncompliance until final judgment.

   The Block

   Sia's Take

   This action by a Michigan state judge is yet another step which state and local jurisdictions are taking in their escalating fight against the federal government over oversight of prediction markets. While this preliminary injunction may never be enforced, it shows that state regulators are serious in their quest to apply local oversight to prediction markets operating in their jurisdiction.

3. 3
   Regulatory

   Kalshi and Polymarket pull athlete injury-duration contracts after informal CFTC request

   Both platforms removed betting markets tied to how long injured athletes would be out, Polymarket around August 31 and Kalshi around September 1, after a CFTC source told Sportico the agency had asked them to do so informally.

   Sportico

   Sia's Take

   This request tracks with the CFTC's June proposed rule, which takes the preliminary view that event-contract rules should generally bar markets tied to player injuries given manipulation risk and exposure of medical information, though no formal order has issued. While the CFTC has not taken an aggressive stance against prediction markets thus far, they have shown their willingness to step in when specific spot markets appear to operate against the best interests of the public. Prediction market operators need to pay attention to such guidance, and have a proper governance structure in place, to ensure that they do not face further scrutiny in the future by propping up spot markets on questionable topics.

4. 4
   Regulatory

   Kalshi accuses Washington of "selective non-enforcement" as geofencing deadline hits

   Kalshi's attorneys sent a letter dated August 28 to the Washington State Gambling Commission accusing the agency of selectively enforcing gambling law against Kalshi while leaving competitors offering identical contracts untouched, as a Superior Court order requiring a more robust multi-source geofence took effect September 3 with $120,000-per-day fines for noncompliance. The letter is a new procedural front in Washington's existing injunction fight rather than a new case.

   Covers.com

   Sia's Take

   This action by Kalshi signals that they will keep contesting the state's enforcement priorities even as it complies with the underlying order, pending an ultimate decision by the United State Supreme Court.

5. 5
   Regulatory

   New York AG calls CFTC's emergency order "irrelevant" to state case against Kalshi

   In an August 31 letter, the New York Attorney General's office told the court that the CFTC's Section 8a(9) emergency order directing Kalshi to keep operating nationwide has no bearing on New York's own state-court gambling case, accusing the Commission of using its emergency-authority letter to advance Kalshi's litigation position in courts around the country. The filing keeps New York's suit alive without altering its substance.

   SBC Americas

   Sia's Take

   This action underscores that state regulators are not treating the CFTC's emergency orders as dispositive, but rather see it as a hurdle which has no material bearing on their execution of state law. While this battle will undoubtedly be decided by the United States Supreme Court, these interim actions are a clear insight into what state-level actions will look like if the Supreme Court gives oversight authority over prediction markets to state and local jurisdictions as well.

6. 6
   Regulatory

   New putative class action names Kalshi and Robinhood in Southern District of New York

   A new class-action complaint against KalshiEX and Robinhood was docketed in the Southern District of New York on August 31, per federal-docket monitoring; the specific claims are not yet detailed in public reporting. It adds to a growing docket of unlicensed-gambling and consumer-protection suits filed against both companies this year and is one to watch for certification and consolidation motions.

   CourtListener

   Sia's Take

   Passage of the Clarity Act in 2026 may further solidify the contextual parameters around consumer-protection as it relates to matters regarding prediction markets.

7. 7
   Regulatory

   CFTC moves to dismiss CME's suit over Kalshi's bitcoin perpetual futures approval

   The CFTC filed a motion on September 2nd to dismiss CME's lawsuit over Kalshi's bitcoin perpetual futures approval, arguing CME Group lacks standing because the same order it is challenging lets any designated contract market, including CME, list bitcoin perpetual futures on the same terms. The Commission called the suit 'much ado about nothing' since CME remains free to launch a competing product rather than being excluded from the market, a framing that could shape how courts treat competitor challenges to CFTC product approvals more broadly.

   The Block
8. 8
   Regulatory

   New federal complaint filed against Polymarket in D.C.

   A new complaint against Blockratize, Inc. d/b/a Polymarket was docketed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia on September 2, per federal-docket monitoring; claim details are not yet public. It joins the wave of unlicensed-gambling, deceptive-marketing, and consumer-protection suits already filed against Polymarket this year.

   CourtListener