SiaPredict DailySeptember 4, 2026
Top line
A new South Carolina lawsuit tests a 1912 gambling-recovery statute against a wide swath of prediction-market infrastructure, naming operators and their market-making counterparties alike, broadening the litigation theater beyond the states already suing directly. Canada's securities regulators took the opposite tack this week, telling dealers that sports and entertainment event contracts sit outside securities law entirely and belong with provincial gaming regulators instead. Meanwhile Kalshi and Polymarket kept racing on product breadth, both expanding perpetual-futures menus as fresh traffic and volume data show Kalshi pulling further ahead on scale.
Today's top 8
- 1Regulatory
South Carolina suit invokes 1912 gambling-recovery law against DraftKings, Polymarket, Robinhood, CME, and market makers
Charleston attorney James Hughes filed suit in Charleston County under South Carolina's 1712 Statute of Anne-derived recovery statute, which lets any member of the public sue to recover an illegal gambling loss, trebled, if the original bettor does not sue within three months. The complaint names DraftKings and Polymarket as primary defendants but also adds Robinhood, CME Group, Crypto.com Derivatives North America, and market makers including Bitnomial, Wintermute, Jump Trading, DRW, IMC, Galaxy Digital, and Virtu Financial as co-defendants for facilitating the trades. For compliance teams, the theory is notable because it extends potential liability exposure past the customer-facing operator to the exchanges and liquidity providers behind it, a template other states with similar qui tam-style recovery statutes could copy.
Courthouse News ServiceSia's Take
This is yet another example of a state using existing law to justify their oversight of prediction markets at the state/local level. This action will undoubtedly be decided by the Supreme Court in the coming year, however existing prediction market operators should take such actions into account and be prepared to action them from a compliance perspective if the Supreme Court rules in favor of state/local regulatory oversight.
- 2RegulatoryCatch-up
Canada's CSA and CIRO tell dealers sports and entertainment event contracts fall outside securities law
The Canadian Securities Administrators and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization issued joint guidance stating that event contracts based on sports or entertainment outcomes should not be regulated as securities or derivatives, and CIRO said it will not approve new dealer-member applications to trade them. That pushes sports and entertainment contracts toward provincial gaming regulators instead, the inverse of the US argument that CFTC registration preempts state gambling law. Wealthsimple and Interactive Brokers Canada keep limited authorization, but only for event contracts that take 30 or more days to resolve, so operators eyeing Canadian expansion should not assume the US preemption playbook applies there.
Gaming IntelligenceSia's Take
Canadian regulators have taken the same stance as many national regulatory bodies around the world by excluding entertainment event contracts from standing securities laws and placing them under the authority of provincial, state and local gaming commissions. Unlike many European and Asian jurisdictions, however, Canada has given limited authorization for prediction markets to operate event contracts that take 30 days or more to resolve, giving US-based prediction market operators the potential to enter the Canadian market in a limited capacity.
- 3IndustryCatch-up
Prospect Markets signs definitive agreement with Crypto.com to distribute U.S. sports event contracts
Prospect Prediction Markets' US subsidiary, Prospect Brokerage USA, executed a definitive agreement with OG Prediction Markets and Crypto.com Derivatives North America to distribute event contracts, converting a July letter of intent into a binding deal. Prospect Brokerage will act as introducing broker on CDNA's CFTC-registered exchange and clearing infrastructure, targeting a Q3 2026 launch ahead of the NFL and NBA seasons.
StockTitanSia's Take
This is another instance of a smaller distributor renting a CFTC-registered venue's regulatory status rather than seeking its own designation, a pattern that keeps widening CDNA's and similar DCMs' downstream footprint.
- 4Industry
Polymarket launches never-expiring oil futures as part of a 24/7 perpetual-contracts push
Polymarket rolled out an expanded "Polymarket Perps" product offering leveraged perpetual futures up to 20x across crypto, equities, and commodities, including two never-expiring contracts tied to Brent and WTI crude benchmarks. The oil contracts put Polymarket in direct competition with Kalshi, which has also been building out crude-oil perpetual offerings, as both platforms chase round-the-clock trading venues outside traditional futures-market hours.
BloombergSia's Take
The leverage levels of these perpetual-contracts are materially higher than the up-to-10x crypto and metals perpetuals Polymarket introduced in April, signaling the platform is willing to take on more product risk to compete on breadth.
- 5Industry
Kalshi adds five more crypto perpetuals, taking its "American Perpetuals" roster to 17 tokens
Kalshi launched CFTC-regulated perpetual futures on BNB, Cardano, Worldcoin, Aave, and Venice Token under its American Perpetuals brand, with leverage caps ranging from 1.9x to 4.5x depending on the asset. Applications covering Stellar, Polkadot, and Hedera are still pending, and the expansion lands the same week the CFTC moved to dismiss CME Group's lawsuit challenging the underlying approval of Kalshi's original bitcoin perpetual contract.
The Block / crypto.newsSia's Take
Kalshi is scaling the exact product category CME has called an unlawful swap while that litigation is still pending dismissal. This sequencing represents a choice that keeps raising the stakes of the underlying swap-definition dispute.
- 6IndustryCatch-up
Crypto.com and PYMNTS launch AI-adoption prediction contracts on OG Prediction Markets
Crypto.com and PYMNTS announced an exclusive two-year partnership to list more than 20 "AI Predictions Market Contracts" on OG Prediction Markets starting in September, tracking AI adoption across consumer behavior, enterprise deployment, workforce transformation, and other sectors, with roughly 25 additional contracts planned each quarter. The deal extends Crypto.com Derivatives North America's role as a distribution venue for third-party contract designers beyond sports, following the same white-label pattern as its other recent partnerships.
PYMNTSSia's Take
This is a notable product-category expansion for the sector, moving prediction contracts further into corporate and macroeconomic forecasting rather than sports or elections. Prediction market operators should keep a keen eye on the expanded regulatory scrutiny which they may fall under.
- 7IndustryCatch-up
High Roller Technologies sets September 15 closed beta for its ROLR prediction-markets platform
High Roller Technologies (NYSE: ROLR) announced an invitation-only closed beta launch for September 15, 2026, with a public commercial launch targeted for the end of October, pending successful completion of the beta. The company said the controlled phase will test account registration, identity verification, deposits and withdrawals, trade execution, platform stability, and customer-service response times before wider access. It is another new entrant timeline to track alongside Novig, Opinion, and Pascal as the field of smaller challengers to Kalshi and Polymarket keeps growing.
GlobeNewswire - 8Industry
Kalshi's US web traffic surges 1,520% as August volume hits roughly $40 billion
Similarweb data cited by Cointelegraph shows Kalshi's US web visits reached 15.4 million in July 2026, up roughly 1,520% from about 1 million a year earlier, while monthly notional trading volume climbed to about $40 billion in August from $874 million a year prior. Kalshi now accounts for roughly 79% of the prediction-market industry's total monthly volume of $50.7 billion, with sports contracts representing 83% of its own July trading. The data also shows meaningful traffic from Canada and the UK, jurisdictions where Kalshi's member agreement restricts direct access, a gap worth watching given this week's separate Canadian regulatory guidance on event contracts.
Cointelegraph