SiaPredict DailySeptember 9, 2026
Top line
Kalshi lost twice in one day. An Iowa federal judge denied its bid to block state enforcement and the Tenth Circuit refused to stay Utah's gambling law pending appeal, extending a losing streak on the CEA-preemption theory the industry has leaned on all year. Robinhood separately struck a court-approved pause on new Michigan sports contracts, Underdog filed a fresh preemption suit against New Mexico, and the NFL renewed pressure on Kalshi and Polymarket to drop manipulable contracts ahead of Wednesday's kickoff.
Today's top 5
- 1Regulatory
Iowa federal judge denies Kalshi's bid to block state gambling enforcement
U.S. District Judge Stephen H. Locher denied Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction against Iowa AG Brenna Bird on September 8, holding Kalshi was unlikely to succeed on its CEA-preemption argument because Congress would need to speak more clearly before displacing a state's traditional police power over gambling. The ruling extends a run of state and district-court losses for Kalshi's preemption theory following Michigan and Utah, and leaves Iowa free to enforce its gambling laws against Kalshi's sports contracts while the case proceeds.
Courthouse News ServiceSia's Take
This action by the United States District in the Southern District of Iowa is yet another example of disparate rulings regarding the regulatory oversight of prediction markets from both state-level and federal courts. While this action may ultimately be overturned on appeal, it is yet another example of the inevitability of a US Supreme Court decision ultimately shaping the regulatory landscape for prediction markets. In the interim, if such enforcement actions are stayed by the supreme court, prediction market operators should be prepared to act on such enforcement actions immediately.
- 2Regulatory
Tenth Circuit denies Kalshi's emergency stay, leaves Utah free to enforce its gambling law
The Tenth Circuit ruled on September 8 that Kalshi met none of the four factors required for an injunction pending appeal, letting Utah continue enforcing its gambling law against Kalshi's sports contracts while the merits appeal proceeds. It is the second federal appeals court, after the Sixth Circuit, to decline to treat CFTC registration as license to operate nationwide pending review.
SBC AmericasSia's Take
Similar to last week's ruling from the Sixth Circuit Court of appeals in Michigan, the Tenth Circuit Court of appeals has also split from Third Circuit Court of appeals' decision to defer to the CFTC on all prediction market oversight matters. While this decision will have cause no material change in the outcome of an eventual Supreme Court decision, it may cause Robinhood to temporarily cease operation in the State of Utah. This action is another reminder to compliance teams that appellate relief is not arriving quickly or automatically.
- 3Regulatory
Robinhood agrees to pause new Michigan sports contracts under court-approved stipulation
Robinhood Derivatives reached a stipulation with Michigan officials, effective September 9, agreeing to stop offering new sports-event contracts to Michigan customers and to close out remaining open positions by October 9, in exchange for the state holding off enforcement while Robinhood's Sixth Circuit appeal is pending. The deal is a pause rather than a merits ruling and expressly preserves Robinhood's CEA-preemption defense, landing the same week Michigan converted its temporary restraining order against Kalshi specifically into a preliminary injunction carrying a $500,000-per-day noncompliance penalty.
Legal Sports ReportSia's Take
Compliance teams need to be ready to act on any unilateral or partial decisions handed down by state-level courts and federal courts while appeals on legal enforcements are pending.
- 4Industry
NFL renews demand that prediction markets drop 'objectionable' contracts ahead of kickoff
NFL Chief Compliance Officer Sabrina Perel sent a follow-up letter on September 3 to designated contract markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket US, copied to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, saying contracts the league considers manipulable by a single participant, officiating-related, or based on non-public information have continued to appear despite an earlier March request.
Legal Sports ReportSia's Take
No CFTC action has followed this letter and operators maintain their offerings are federally regulated event contracts rather than the "bets" the league calls them, leaving this a reputational rather than legal pressure point for now.
- 5Regulatory
Underdog's exchange subsidiary sues New Mexico AG in preemptive federal filing
Underdog Exchange DCM filed a federal CEA-preemption suit against New Mexico AG Raul Torrez and the state Gaming Control Board on September 8, the same day it filed a parallel suit against Massachusetts AG Andrea Campbell. New Mexico is not among the seven states where Underdog is surrendering its daily-fantasy-sports licenses, so this filing reads as a standalone first-strike preemption claim rather than a response to a DFS-licensing conflict.
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