SiaPredict DailySeptember 12, 2026

Today's top 6

1. 1
   RegulatoryCatch-up

   Robinhood petitions Supreme Court to review Ninth Circuit's Nevada ruling

   Robinhood filed a petition for a writ of certiorari with the U.S. Supreme Court on September 9, asking the justices to decide whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling regulation of sports event contracts listed on CFTC-registered exchanges. The filing follows the Ninth Circuit's August 28 ruling that Nevada may regulate Kalshi's sports contracts as gambling, which conflicts with the Third Circuit's April ruling for New Jersey and gives the Court two separate cert petitions, Robinhood's and New Jersey's, on the same preemption question. A grant would set a nationwide rule on state authority over sports-linked contracts.

   Benzinga

   Sia's Take

   Robinhood’s request for a cert from the United States Supreme Court, if granted, would supersede and action currently taken by circuit courts and would effectively preempt a larger case which will most likely be decided next summer. This cert, if granted, would give prediction markets the ability to operate outside of state and local jurisdictional authority in the interim while the larger case is being decided.

2. 2
   IndustryCatch-up

   Citadel Securities urges SEC to assert oversight of equity-linked event contracts

   Citadel Securities told the SEC and CFTC in a September 10 letter that event contracts tied to individual public companies, including corporate KPI and equity-index contracts, are security options that belong under SEC oversight rather than the CFTC's. The firm argued CFTC self-certification, which lets a designated contract market list a new product the next business day without public comment, risks a surveillance gap for products tied to undisclosed corporate information, warning of a "parallel shadow market." The letter names no specific venue but lands the same week Kalshi seeks approval for roughly 60 single-stock and ETF perpetual contracts, sharpening the jurisdictional fight over who regulates equity-linked products.

   The Block

   Sia's Take

   This is a unique action, in that a major institutional facial player is asking another regulator (outside the CFTC) to claim oversight authority over certain specific prediction market product offerings. This action adds to the ongoing fight over prediction market oversight and adds an additional layer of dispute overd agency oversight jurisdiction claims at the federal regulatory level.

3. 3
   RegulatoryCatch-up

   Kalshi seeks en banc rehearing at the Ninth Circuit rather than following Robinhood to the Supreme Court

   Kalshi petitioned the full Ninth Circuit for en banc rehearing on September 9, arguing the three-judge panel's August 28 decision, that its sports contracts are not swaps and can be regulated as gambling by Nevada, rests on internally inconsistent reasoning and conflicts with the Commodity Exchange Act's text. The move keeps Kalshi's challenge inside the Ninth Circuit while Robinhood pursues the same underlying ruling directly at the Supreme Court, a split strategy gaming-law observers describe as a deliberate tag-team approach. En banc rehearings are granted rarely, in roughly 1.5% of Ninth Circuit requests in fiscal 2025, so the practical effect may be to buy time rather than reverse the panel.

   DeFi Rate
4. 4
   RegulatoryCatch-up

   Virginia Senate candidate sues Kalshi over five-year trading ban tied to his own race

   Mark Moran, an independent Senate candidate whom KalshiEX banned for five years in April over trades on his own race, sued Kalshi Inc. in the Eastern District of Virginia on September 10. Kalshi's disciplinary notice had said Moran traded on the race before formally entering it and continued afterward despite acknowledging the trades were improper; the complaint's specific claims are not yet detailed in public filings. The case adds a market-integrity dispute with an individual trader to Kalshi's docket, distinct from the state-preemption fights dominating its other litigation.

   Justia Dockets
5. 5
   Industry

   Kalshi files to list single-stock perpetual futures on Tesla, Apple and Nvidia

   Kalshi is seeking regulatory approval to list the first single-stock perpetual futures in the U.S., starting with contracts on Tesla, Apple and Nvidia, and plans to expand its commodity offering into agricultural products, co-founder Tarek Mansour said September 11. The filing extends Kalshi's perpetual-contract format, already approved for crypto and precious metals, into individual equities for the first time, directly implicating the jurisdictional question Citadel Securities raised the same week over who should oversee equity-linked event contracts.

   Bloomberg
6. 6
   IndustryCatch-up

   Coinbase says prediction-markets revenue crossed $100 million annualized

   Coinbase CFO Alesia Haas told the Goldman Sachs Communacopia and Technology Conference on September 9 that prediction markets are among the fastest-growing revenue products in the company's history, with revenue and contract volume both doubling from the first to the second quarter and annualized run-rate revenue crossing $100 million. The disclosure gives the industry a rare public revenue benchmark, coming as Coinbase, Kalshi, Polymarket and Robinhood all compete for the same event-contract volume.

   Markets Media