SiaPredict DailySeptember 14, 2026
Top line
The CFTC opened a new front over the weekend, moving for a preliminary injunction against Connecticut days after the state hit nine platforms with cease-and-desist orders, while Robinhood and Crypto.com's Nadex unit joined Kalshi in asking a higher court to revisit the Ninth Circuit's Nevada loss. Trading activity kept climbing regardless, with Jefferies clocking the two highest-volume days in the industry's history over the weekend as Kalshi pushes into single-stock perpetual futures.
Today's top 7
- 1Regulatory
CFTC seeks injunction against Connecticut; Robinhood moves to intervene
The CFTC filed a motion for a preliminary injunction on September 11 in the U.S. District Court for the District of Connecticut, asking the court to bar the state from enforcing its gambling laws against CFTC-registered prediction-market platforms. The filing follows Connecticut's September 10 cease-and-desist orders to nine operators; Robinhood asked the same day to intervene, citing the cease-and-desist notice it received directly. It is the first federal filing seeking to block Connecticut's enforcement outright, rather than an operator litigating its own case.
ON360Sia's Take
The CFTC is opening a new front in its fight against state regulators and in favor of its own universal oversight over prediction markets. This action further highlights an interesting alliance which has been formed between state & local regulators on one side and licensed prediction markets and their federal regulator on the other.
- 2Regulatory
Robinhood, Crypto.com's Nadex unit petition Supreme Court over Nevada ruling; Kalshi seeks en banc rehearing
Robinhood Derivatives filed a petition for a writ of certiorari on September 9 and Crypto.com's North American Derivatives Exchange followed on or about September 11, both seeking Supreme Court review of the Ninth Circuit's August 28 ruling that Nevada may regulate sports-event contracts as gambling. Kalshi instead petitioned the Ninth Circuit for en banc rehearing of the same decision. The operator-filed petitions follow New Jersey's own September 2 cert petition in the parallel Flaherty case, giving the Court three separate paths into the same preemption question.
SBC AmericasSia's Take
The inevitability of the Supreme Court deciding the regulatory fate of prediction markets was further solidified last week when Robinhood Derivatives appealed directly to the High Court in another parallel appeal. The court now has 3 different cases from which to respond to the preemption question. Licensed and license-pending prediction market operators should closely watch this space to see how many additional parallel cases are ultimately brought before the Court.
- 3Regulatory
ESMA says Kalshi and Polymarket lack the EU authorization needed to operate
The European Securities and Markets Authority's Risk Monitor 2/2026, published September 11, said marketing event contracts in the EU generally requires an authorization neither Kalshi nor Polymarket holds, and questioned the effectiveness of both companies' partial, VPN-circumventable geo-blocking of EU users.
The BlockSia's Take
While this statement carries no enforcement power on its own, it adds Europe's securities regulator to a list of international bodies, alongside the UK FCA and Canada's CSA/CIRO, that have flagged the platforms' cross-border posture this year.
- 4Industry
Kalshi files to list single-stock perpetual futures on Tesla, Apple and Nvidia
Kalshi is seeking CFTC approval to list what would be the first US single-stock perpetual futures, initially covering roughly 60 equity and ETF names including Tesla, Apple and Nvidia, and separately plans to extend its commodity-perpetual lineup into agriculture. The filing extends the cash-settled, continuously traded perpetual format the CFTC first approved for Kalshi's bitcoin contract into equities, a jurisdictional reach that has already drawn Citadel Securities' objection that the SEC, not the CFTC, should oversee equity-linked event contracts.
BloombergSia's Take
Kalshi is taking clear actions to further establish and solidify its product expansion, potentially triggering oversight by the SEC in this particular market space.
- 5Industry
Kalshi and Polymarket's Clarity Act contracts swing sharply ahead of Tuesday's Senate cloture vote
Kalshi's contract on Clarity Act passage before October 2027 jumped from 26% to a 64% intraday high before settling near 53%, while Polymarket's 2026-passage contract climbed from 12% toward 30%, after Senate Republicans released a revised 630-page draft on September 14 ahead of Tuesday's cloture vote. The gap between the two platforms' pricing on the same legislative outcome gives traders two distinct anchors for the same event and illustrates how directly crypto market-structure legislation now feeds prediction-market pricing.
CoinDesk - 6IndustryCatch-up
Polymarket hires its first CFO as it seeks to close the gap with Kalshi
Polymarket named Warren Jenson, a former Amazon and Nielsen finance chief, as its first chief financial officer, tasking him with overseeing capital strategy as the company pursues a fresh raise near a reported $21 billion valuation. The hire is a governance milestone for a company that has operated without a CFO through its rapid scale-up, and comes as Polymarket works to close the volume gap that has opened with Kalshi this year.
CoinDesk - 7Industry
Prediction markets post the two highest-volume trading days on record over the weekend
Investment bank Jefferies clocked $2.93 billion in notional volume across prediction-market platforms on Saturday and more than $3 billion on Sunday, the two highest-volume days in the industry's history, with Kalshi alone booking nearly $2.2 billion in sports and combo contracts on Sunday. The spike lands as the NFL season opens and underscores how much retail flow the category is now absorbing even as its regulatory footing remains contested in federal and state courts.
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