SiaPredict DailySeptember 18, 2026
Top line
A Ninth Circuit panel revived a tribal injunction against Kalshi and Robinhood's sports event contracts under federal Indian gaming law, its second loss at that court in three weeks and a fresh entry in the circuit split now before the Supreme Court. The CFTC separately eased broker-registration requirements for software providers that route users to regulated exchanges, a change that reaches crypto and prediction market platforms even though it carries only staff-level weight. DraftKings shares fell for a third straight session after data showed Kalshi capturing three-quarters of NFL Week 1's exchange volume, underscoring the gap between the CFTC-registered exchange model and sportsbooks' own contracts.
Today's top 7
- 1Regulatory
Ninth Circuit revives tribal injunction against Kalshi, Robinhood sports contracts under IGRA
A Ninth Circuit panel ruled for Blue Lake Rancheria and Chicken Ranch Rancheria on September 16, reversing a district court's denial of a preliminary injunction and holding the tribes are likely to show Kalshi's sports-event contracts amount to unauthorized Class III gaming under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act regardless of the CFTC's federal registration. The panel rejected Kalshi's argument that it cannot violate compacts it never signed, reasoning that IGRA lets tribes enjoin unauthorized gaming on their own land independent of federal commodities law. This action reinstates injunctive relief blocking the contracts on both tribes' reservations.
SBC AmericasSia's Take
This is Kalshi's second loss before a panel of judges on the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals in three week, following its August 28th ruling for Nevada. This move reinstates injunctive relief blocking contracts on both tribes' reservations. More importantly, however, this action is yet another example of ongoing split between, and within, circuit courts themselves which sends mixed messages to prediction market operators, state/local/tribal regulators and prediction market users alike. As a best practice, licensed and license-pending prediction market operators should keep a close eye on these rulings to determine how best to shape their compliance programs over the coming year.
- 2Regulatory
CFTC extends broker-registration relief to passive software providers, reaching prediction-market platforms
The CFTC's Market Participants Division issued Staff Letter 26-25 on September 17, extending a no-action position on introducing-broker registration to any software provider meeting ten conditions, chiefly that it never takes custody of user assets, generates trading signals, or earns volume-based commissions. The letter broadens relief the division had granted only to Phantom Technologies in March, opening the same exemption to other developers whose software connects users to CFTC-registered futures commission merchants, introducing brokers, and designated contract markets, including event-contract platforms.
CFTCSia's Take
This position by the CFTC is a staff enforcement stance, not a Commission rule and lapses once the CFTC adopts formal guidance on how introducing broker requirements applies to software developers, however, it does show that the CFTC is taking (small) steps toward eventually providing concrete guidance regarding comprehensive prediction market oversight.
- 3Regulatory
Crypto.com's Nadex registers with the SEC to offer single-stock futures
Crypto.com's North American Derivatives Exchange registered with the SEC as a national securities exchange for security futures products under a notice-registration provision that took effect the moment it filed on September 14, with the SEC acknowledging receipt September 16. The registration clears Nadex to list single-stock futures on US equities without an affirmative Commission vote, and CEO Kris Marszalek said the company is working with both the SEC and CFTC toward single-stock perpetual futures.
The BlockSia's Take
This action puts Crypto.com on a parallel track with Kalshi's own pending 60-contract single-stock and ETF perpetual filing, the same expansion Citadel Securities has urged the SEC to claim jurisdiction over. This is a space to watch to see if another federal regulator fully enters the prediction market oversight space.
- 4RegulatoryCatch-up
Underdog sues Connecticut over sports-contract cease-and-desist, its sixth state suit on the same theory
Underdog's CFTC-registered exchange subsidiary sued Connecticut's attorney general and consumer-protection commissioner, on September 15, seeking a declaration that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts the state's gambling laws as applied to its sports event contracts. The suit responds to Connecticut's September 10 cease-and-desist orders against nine operators. This suit by Underdog follows the identical CEA-preemption template they used against Massachusetts, New Mexico, Ohio, Washington and Wisconsin.
The BlockSia's Take
Underdog's actions run parallel to the CFTC's own September 11th preliminary injunction motion against Connecticut, thus aligning several licensed prediction market operators with their federal regulator against state governing bodies.
- 5RegulatoryCatch-up
Robinhood and Crypto.com's Nadex ask Supreme Court to review Ninth Circuit's Nevada ruling; Kalshi seeks en banc rehearing instead
Robinhood filed a petition for a writ of certiorari on September 9 and Crypto.com's North American Derivatives Exchange filed a similar petition on September 11, both asking the Supreme Court to review the Ninth Circuit's August 28 ruling that Nevada may regulate Kalshi's sports contracts as gambling. Kalshi itself instead petitioned the Ninth Circuit for en banc rehearing, arguing the panel's decision creates an exceptionally important circuit split with the Third Circuit's contrary ruling for Kalshi in New Jersey.
DeFi RateSia's Take
These three filings are the first Supreme Court petitions from operators themselves, following New Jersey's September 2nd cert petition in the parallel case and set up a scramble over which vehicle reaches the Court first.
- 6Industry
DraftKings shares fall 7.6% as Kalshi captures 76% of NFL Week 1 exchange volume
DraftKings stock fell 7.6% to $22.47 on September 17, its third straight losing session, after Needham's exchange-level analysis of NFL Week 1 showed Kalshi commanding 76% of the $14.6 billion in sports-and-parlay prediction-market volume across eight exchanges, versus roughly 3% for DraftKings' own DKeX. Flutter shares fell 5.2% over the same stretch while the Nasdaq rose 1.7%, isolating the decline to prediction-market exposure rather than a broader selloff. DraftKings maintains its 2026 profitability guidance, and the company notes it distributes volume across multiple exchanges in ways Needham's methodology may understate.
The Crypto Basic - 7IndustryCatch-up
Polymarket launches 2026 Midterms Hub with live odds and election-night vote tracking
Polymarket announced its 2026 Midterms Hub on September 16, a dedicated destination covering more than 560 Senate, House, gubernatorial, and referendum markets with an interactive map colored by market-implied probabilities and balance-of-power markets aggregating race-level contracts into a live read on which party is expected to control Congress. The hub will show live vote counts alongside market odds on Election Day as precinct results come in. The launch is a distribution and engagement play ahead of November rather than a new product category, timed to the same fall volume ramp the sector expects from the midterms and the NFL season.
PR Newswire