SiaPredict DailySeptember 24, 2026

Today's top 8

1. 1
   Regulatory

   Senate Banking Democrats demand public hearing on prediction markets after private Kalshi meeting

   All seven Senate Banking Committee Democrats, led by Elizabeth Warren, wrote Chair Tim Scott on September 23 asking for a public hearing on prediction markets, hours after committee Republicans met privately that morning with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour. The letter argued Congress should examine the industry "on a bipartisan basis in a public hearing, not behind closed doors," and flagged the committee's jurisdiction over securities-linked products as operators including Cboe seek SEC approval for options tied to corporate earnings. Scott has not committed to a hearing date, leaving the scope and timing of oversight on issues like insider trading and consumer protection unresolved.

   The Block
2. 2
   Regulatory

   Sen. Curtis asks Judiciary Committee to subpoena Trump Jr. over Kalshi and Polymarket ties

   Sen. John Curtis sent a letter dated September 21 to Judiciary Committee Chair Chuck Grassley and Ranking Member Dick Durbin asking the committee to investigate whether presidential family relationships have been used for private financial benefit, and to subpoena both Donald Trump Jr. and Hunter Biden. The letter cites Trump Jr.'s paid advisory role and equity stake at Kalshi, and his stake in Polymarket through 1789 Capital's $300 million commitment. Sens. John Cornyn and Thom Tillis have voiced support, framing the request as a test of whether Congress applies equal scrutiny to both parties, a conflict-of-interest question running alongside the industry's separate CFTC and SEC fights.

   SBC Americas
3. 3
   RegulatoryCatch-up

   Kalshi Klear asks CFTC to let institutions trade event contracts on margin

   Kalshi's clearinghouse filed a Regulation 40.5 request with the CFTC on September 22 to end full-collateral requirements for institutional participants, letting futures commission merchants and approved self-clearing members post only part of a contract's value, with margin scaling down near resolution and reverting to full collateral at peak-risk periods. Sports, "mention," and culture markets are excluded from eligibility, and the filing also proposes shortening the default-liquidation window from five days to one, which lowers the margin required but drew scrutiny for a redacted justification. The CFTC has 45 days to act, and approval would introduce the first use of leverage inside a CFTC-regulated event-contract market.

   CryptoTimes
4. 4
   Industry

   DraftKings shares fall 4% after CEO signals faster prediction-market spending

   DraftKings CEO Jason Robins told a Wells Fargo analyst on September 22 that early results in states without licensed online sports betting have been strong enough to justify pulling forward marketing and promotional spend on prediction markets from next year into the current period. Shares dropped 4% to $20.92 in Wednesday trading as investors weighed the near-term margin hit, even as Robins pointed to DraftKings approaching a double-digit share of sports prediction-market volume. He also acknowledged that "the regulatory and legal position of prediction markets is unsettled and outside the company's control," tying the spending bet directly to an outcome still pending at the Supreme Court.

   24/7 Wall St.
5. 5
   Industry

   Susquehanna expands prediction-markets desk by a third, recruits from college trading contests

   Susquehanna International Group has grown its prediction-markets trading desk by a third this year and plans an October competition letting college students simulate trading on midterm-election contracts, part of a pipeline for its next generation of market makers. The build-out signals an established options and derivatives market maker treating prediction markets as a durable liquidity-provision business rather than a side bet, arriving as combined Kalshi and Polymarket monthly volume has roughly doubled since May. It puts Susquehanna more squarely alongside crypto-native firms like Wintermute and Jump Trading already active on Kalshi's platform.

   Bloomberg
6. 6
   Industry

   Report puts Kalshi's IPO-track valuation as high as $42 billion, contingent on Supreme Court outcome

   A Pitchbook-based analysis published September 24 estimates Kalshi could be worth as much as $42 billion on an IPO-track basis, nearly double the $22 billion valuation set by its $1 billion Series F in May, with investors eyeing a listing as soon as next year. The higher figure assumes Kalshi prevails in the pending Supreme Court fight over whether states can regulate its sports event contracts as gambling, a case now before the Court on competing petitions from New Jersey, Robinhood, and NADEX. The wide gap between the current and potential valuation underscores how much of Kalshi's near-term worth still turns on a jurisdictional ruling rather than operating metrics.

   Fortune
7. 7
   Industry

   Nevada and Washington problem-gambling groups quit NCPG over Kalshi partnership

   The Nevada Council on Problem Gambling and Washington's Evergreen Council on Problem Gambling have withdrawn from the National Council on Problem Gambling since it accepted a two-year, $2 million Kalshi commitment in May, joining the Michigan Gaming Control Board and Ohio in exiting over the same issue. Nevada's executive director wrote that the partnership's "scale and visibility... may create confusion regarding the distinction between harm reduction engagement and endorsement," and NCPG's Director of Programs has resigned. NCPG's board president maintains that membership "does not constitute an endorsement," but the string of departures signals growing discomfort inside the responsible-gambling field with taking operator funding while state litigation against Kalshi continues.

   Axios
8. 8
   Industry

   Combined Kalshi-Polymarket volume doubled to $53 billion in two months, sports now dominant

   A Pew Research analysis published September 23 found combined monthly trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket rose from $26 billion in May to $53 billion in July, with sports contracts, boosted by the FIFA World Cup, now the most-traded category on both platforms by a wide margin. Kalshi alone processed roughly $31.4 billion in July sports volume against Polymarket's $10.6 billion, a scale Pew notes rivals the roughly $40 billion Americans wagered on legal sportsbooks in the first quarter. The growth reinforces state regulators' core complaint, that sports event contracts are functioning as a nationwide sportsbook outside state licensing, even as volume cooled slightly in August before ticking back up with football season.

   Pew Research Center