SiaPredict DailyOctober 2, 2026

Today's top 4

1. 1
   RegulatoryCatch-up

   Sixth Circuit rules Ohio and Tennessee may apply gambling laws to Kalshi sports contracts

   A unanimous Sixth Circuit panel held on September 25 that Kalshi failed to show its sports event contracts are swaps under the CEA, and added an alternative holding that the CEA does not preempt the states' gambling statutes even if they were. The ruling deepens the split with the Third and Ninth Circuits and strengthens the case for Supreme Court review, where Kalshi, Robinhood and Crypto.com petitions are reported pending. Operators should plan for geofencing in states that prevail on this reasoning.

   Sportico

   Sia's Take

   The Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals' decision to uphold a lower federal court's opinion that Kalshi's sports contracts do not fall under the category of swaps further strengthens the case that prediction market operators are making for this matter to ultimately be decided by the Supreme Court during their coming term. While the new Supreme Court term begins Oct 5, 2026, a decision on this matter likely won't be decided until the high court hands down it's slate of term rulings sometime in May or June of 2027, leaving the prediction market industry's regulatory standing influx through then.

2. 2
   RegulatoryCatch-up

   CFTC sends two event-contract swap-definition rules to White House review

   On September 28 the CFTC submitted a proposed rule (RIN 3038-AF82) defining swaps to include event contracts and an interim final rule (RIN 3038-AF81) excluding casino-style gambling products to OIRA. Neither had been published in the Federal Register as of October 1.

   crypto.news

   Sia's Take

   A CFTC definition does not by itself resolve judicial preemption questions, so compliance teams should track the boundary between sports, economic and casino-style contracts once the text is public.

3. 3
   RegulatoryCatch-up

   CFTC staff advisory sets heightened Part 40 showing for mention market contracts

   CFTC Staff Advisory No. 26-27, issued September 22 by the Division of Market Oversight, applies DCM Core Principle 3 to contracts settling on a named individual's conduct and presumes they are susceptible to manipulation. The advisory follows the August 28 Perez consent order and signals tougher scrutiny of new listings.

   Government Enforcement Report

   Sia's Take

   While not a codified regulation or directive, CFTC Staff Advisory No. 26-27 requires designated contract market (a prediction market exchange) to list for trading only contracts that are not readily susceptible to manipulation. This specifically addresses contracts pertaining to an individual, primarily in the area of sports or politics, and has been raised as a concern in the past by multiple professional sports leagues. Exchanges must address four factors, including independent obligations on the individual and surveillance for misappropriation.

4. 4
   IndustryCatch-up

   Polymarket introduces sportsbook-style safeguards amid calls for tighter regulation

   Polymarket added irreversible deposit limits, a temporary or permanent self-exclusion list and links to resources for compulsive trading, one week after New York's suit. It is also auditing promotional content after a Wall Street Journal report on paid creator videos showing winning bets. The measures borrow from licensed sportsbook responsible-gaming practice and may be cited in state negotiations.

   CNN

   Sia's Take

   These proactive steps by Polymarket are being taken to create responsible-gaming environments for users. While these internal oversight measures are not yet required by regulators, such proactive actions show that licensed prediction market operators show that they are serious in preempting possible regulatory action at the federal level and complying with regulatory action at the state level if required to by future court rulings.