SiaPredict DailyOctober 10, 2026
Top line
The CFTC moved on two fronts on October 9, proposing to define event contracts as swaps and issuing an interim final rule that excludes casino-style gambling products. States, tribes and leagues kept pressing the other side of the preemption fight, with a Seminole Tribe suit against DraftKings and an NFL amicus brief at the Supreme Court.
Today's top 10
- 1Regulatory
CFTC proposes rule defining event contracts as swaps
The CFTC published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on October 9 (Press Release 9310-26) that would expressly include event contracts on sports, politics, cultural and weather outcomes in the definition of swap. Comments are due within 30 days of Federal Register publication, which the release does not date. For compliance teams, this is the federal answer to the state preemption fight and the comment clock is about to start.
CFTC - 2Regulatory
CFTC issues interim final rule excluding casino-style gambling products from the swap definition
Press Release 9309-26 (October 9) codifies the CFTC position that casino-style products, including sportsbook and casino-game wagers, are not swaps. It takes effect on Federal Register publication, with comments due within 30 days. The companion rule draws the line operators will be tested against when listing sports contracts.
CFTC - 3Regulatory
Seminole Tribe sues DraftKings, GUS III and CEO Jason Robins over DraftKings Predictions
The tribe filed a 72-page complaint in Broward County Circuit Court on October 8 alleging illegal sports betting under Florida law and its 2021 compact, and pleads a civil racketeering claim against Robins. The allegations are untested, and DraftKings says its product complies with the CEA framework. It adds a tribal compact theory to the private suits already pending against DraftKings Predictions.
Covers - 4Regulatory
NFL files Supreme Court amicus brief backing states in sports-contract preemption fight
The NFL, former CFTC Chair Gary Gensler and former Sen. Chris Dodd are among the amici urging the Court to act as New Jersey seeks review of the preemption question. The NFL argues the CFTC lacks staff to police sports markets. A cert grant would put the jurisdiction question on a national track.
CoinDesk - 5Regulatory
Coinbase agrees with Michigan regulator to stop offering sports event contracts
Under a stipulation announced by the Michigan Gaming Control Board on October 7, Coinbase Financial Markets stops listing new sports contracts for Michigan customers and closes open positions by October 10. Michigan withholds enforcement, and both sides preserve their rights on the merits. It mirrors the earlier Robinhood agreement and shows registered platforms trading access for litigation time.
Michigan Gaming Control Board - 6RegulatoryCatch-up
FCA markets chief confirms talks with Polymarket and Kalshi on possible UK entry
The Financial Times reported on October 6 that the FCA's Simon Walls confirmed discussions with both platforms about UK access. No authorization has been reported. Operators weighing UK expansion should expect the product to be assessed against UK gambling and financial-services perimeters, not US preemption arguments.
Yahoo Finance (citing the Financial Times) - 7RegulatoryCatch-up
PrizePicks suspends Team Picks sports prediction markets in Missouri
PrizePicks told Missouri customers on October 6 that updated legal requirements force it to suspend Team Picks, while Culture Picks and Player Picks remain available. It was not among the six operators that received Missouri Attorney General cease-and-desist letters in September. The pullback is spreading beyond named targets.
SBC Americas - 8Regulatory
Blockchain.com reported to have applied for CFTC DCM and FCM status
The Block, citing CNBC, reported on October 9 that Blockchain.com applied to operate a designated contract market and register as an FCM to offer prediction markets and crypto derivatives to US customers. The filing date was not reported and no CFTC document has been retrieved. It would move the company from routing to Polymarket offshore to direct US participation.
The Block - 9IndustryCatch-up
Kalshi and Polymarket face questions over unusual trading volume on some products
CNBC reported on September 30 that trading clusters in some contracts, including Kalshi ether perpetuals, are drawing scrutiny, and both companies deny wash trading. Volume integrity is a likely supervisory focus as the CFTC defines its jurisdiction over these products.
CNBC - 10Industry
Kalshi founders give $200,000 to new Texas-focused political action committee
The Intercept reported on October 9 that the donation followed Texas legislative hearings on whether prediction markets amount to sports betting. It signals operators are building state-level political presence alongside litigation.
The Intercept