SiaPredict DailyOctober 22, 2026

Today's top 3

1. 1
   Industry

   Polymarket, Kalshi expand political donations as firms face state, federal scrutiny

   Reuters reports that Kalshi, Polymarket and their founders have given at least $5 million to Republican and Democratic groups this cycle, with just over a third going to state-level groups backing governors, attorneys general and legislators. Polymarket made a previously unreported $1 million donation to a Democratic nonprofit that does not disclose its donors.

   Reuters

   Sia's Take

   For compliance teams, the shift toward state-level activity is significant. State attorneys general and legislatures, rather than federal agencies, are now the primary drivers of both enforcement actions and new licensing requirements. As a result, compliance obligations are increasingly shaped by a patchwork of state rules that vary in scope, timing, and stringency, so teams need to track developments state by state and adapt their programs to each jurisdiction in which they operate.

2. 2
   RegulatoryCatch-up

   New Taipei court orders Taiwan to block Coinbase and Kalshi websites over suspected election betting

   A New Taipei court authorized Taiwan's telecom regulator and domain registry to block domestic access to Coinbase and Kalshi at the request of the Criminal Investigation Bureau, citing the Public Officials Election and Recall Act. Polymarket was blocked earlier.

   Taipei Times

   Sia's Take

   Operators listing election contracts should expect foreign authorities to act on market content, even where user terms exclude their jurisdiction. Terms of service signal intent, not immunity, so exclusions must be backed by technical controls, sound contract design, and ongoing regulatory monitoring.

3. 3
   RegulatoryCatch-up

   Supreme Court could rule on sports prediction markets by June 2027

   Pending petitions include New Jersey's request to review the Third Circuit's April ruling for Kalshi and Robinhood and Crypto.com's requests tied to the Ninth Circuit's contrary decision. Gaming attorney Daniel Wallach outlined a fastest path of a grant in December 2026 or January 2027 and a decision by June 2027, while noting a Ninth Circuit rehearing could delay it. Until then, operators should plan for continued state-by-state litigation.

   Covers