SiaPredict DailyOctober 26, 2026
Top line
The CFTC and the NBA formalized an integrity-focused MOU on Monday, marking the first league-level arrangement of its kind linked to exchange deals with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Meanwhile, regulatory pressure remains high in Missouri and Polymarket US has sued Ohio's attorney general and casino regulators in federal court over CFTC rule-making.
Today's top 4
- 1Regulatory
CFTC and NBA sign MOU on integrity in prediction markets
The NBA signed a memorandum of understanding with the CFTC on October 26, alongside multi-year preferred-exchange deals with Kalshi and Polymarket. The league will approve which market types can be offered on its games, and exchanges take on obligations to flag suspicious trading and share investigation information.
CFTCSia's Take
This groundbreaking agreement between a prediction market regulator and a professional sports league represents a significant shift in addressing collusion risk. Compliance teams should prepare for these league-level requirements to become increasingly standard across other market operators.
- 2RegulatoryCatch-up
Missouri attorney general orders six prediction market operators to cease sports event contracts
The Missouri Attorney General's Office issued cease-and-desist letters to Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com, Novig, Underdog and Robinhood over sports event contracts. The action adds Missouri to the states pursuing unlicensed sports wagering theories against federally registered venues.
Missouri Attorney General's Office - 3RegulatoryCatch-up
Polymarket Takes Ohio to Federal Court, Citing New CFTC Rules After Kalshi’s Appeals Loss
Polymarket US has sued Ohio's attorney general and casino regulators in federal court, arguing that CFTC rulemaking from this month undercuts a September appeals ruling against Kalshi. The exchange filed its complaint on Oct. 16, Ohio's deadline, in Ohio's Southern District, where Judge Douglas Cole has the case. The complaint argues Ohio's licensing rules favor companies with an in-state physical footprint and would confine even licensed operators to Ohio customers and argues the Commodity Exchange Act gives the CFTC exclusive authority over event contracts on federally designated exchanges.
Prediction NewsSia's Take
The recent legal developments regarding the Ohio Casino Control Commissions' cease-and-desist notices to ten operators serve as a critical test of the federal preemption argument, extending the conflict well beyond the scope of the ongoing Kalshi litigation.
- 4Industry
Bets on Alito retirement show the Supreme Court tangled in prediction markets
Bloomberg Law reports about $6 million wagered since February across Kalshi and Polymarket on when Justice Alito will step down, and nearly $2 million on whether the Court will hear the New Jersey v. Kalshi dispute. Bets on the court’s membership, as well wagers on its caseload, put the justices and their work in the unusual position of being both the subject of prediction markets and the likely last word on how the fast-growing, multi-billion-dollar industry will be regulated.
Bloomberg Law