SiaPredict DailySeptember 25, 2026

Today's top 7

1. 1
   Regulatory

   New York AG sues Polymarket for operating unlicensed gambling business

   Attorney General Letitia James and Gov. Kathy Hochul announced a lawsuit against QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US on September 24, filed in New York Supreme Court, alleging the platform's sports, election, and entertainment event contracts require a New York State Gaming Commission license it does not hold. The state seeks an injunction, forfeiture of gains, restitution, treble civil penalties, and $100,000 per violation, and follows James's July 31 suit against Kalshi on the same theory. Polymarket removed the case to the Southern District of New York the same day.

   New York Attorney General
2. 2
   Regulatory

   Polymarket countersues New York AG on Commodity Exchange Act preemption theory

   Hours after James's suit, Polymarket US filed its own federal action against James and the New York State Gaming Commission on September 24, seeking a declaratory judgment that the CEA and the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction over designated contract markets preempt New York's gambling laws. The filing follows the same template Kalshi used against New York, which Judge Analisa Torres rejected in July, and makes Polymarket the latest CFTC-registered operator to press preemption against the state after Kalshi, Coinbase, Gemini, and Novig. Polymarket's chief legal officer said the company remains committed to operating in New York.

   Investing.com
3. 3
   IndustryCatch-up

   Kalshi posts 2026's highest-volume week at $15.27 billion, first-ever $3 billion day

   Kalshi recorded $15.27 billion in contract volume for the week of September 14-20, a 16.3% increase from the prior week, including a September 20 day that topped $3 billion in volume for the first time. Sports accounted for $3.24 billion of the week's activity and crypto for $2.16 billion, with Kalshi commanding 92.9% of combined Kalshi-Polymarket volume over the period. The milestone lands the same week Kalshi's ether-perpetuals market drew CFTC scrutiny over concentrated trade sizing, underscoring how fast product volume is outpacing the exchange's own compliance build-out.

   DeFi Rate
4. 4
   Industry

   DraftKings shares slip as adjusted data narrows Kalshi's NFL prediction-market lead

   DraftKings fell 2% to $20.77 on September 25 after Needham's analysis showed Kalshi's reported 76% share of NFL prediction-market volume narrows to 67% once exchange-style repeat trading by professional traders is adjusted to a consumer-equivalent basis, with DraftKings' own exchange, DKeX, holding roughly 3% either way. Robinhood and Flutter Entertainment shares also declined. CEO Jason Robins maintains DraftKings is seeing double-digit share in the specific markets where it participates, a narrower claim than category-wide volume counts.

   24/7 Wall St.
5. 5
   Industry

   Midterm election markets on Kalshi and Polymarket top $750 million in combined volume

   CNN reported September 24 that combined trading on 2026 midterm election markets across Kalshi and Polymarket has exceeded $750 million, spread across 1,408 open markets covering individual House and Senate races and control of Congress. Election officials told CNN the volume is fueling both disinformation risk and insider-trading exposure inside campaigns and election offices; Kalshi has already disclosed a three-year trading suspension and fine against North Carolina congressional candidate Laurie Buckhout for trading on her own race. Both platforms say federally required insider-trading safeguards are in place to prevent candidates and staff from trading on their own contests.

   CNN
6. 6
   IndustryCatch-up

   Robinhood CEO says crypto contracts will overtake sports in prediction markets

   Vlad Tenev told CNBC on September 21 that crypto-linked event contracts are taking a disproportionate share of Robinhood's prediction-markets business and that sports contracts will fall into the minority within a few years, framing sports as the initial 'wedge' that built liquidity for the broader product line. Event-contract revenue reached $156 million in the second quarter, more than tenfold higher year over year, with 4.7 billion contracts traded in August alone. The shift matters for competitive positioning, since Kalshi and Polymarket have built their own volume mostly on sports and elections to date.

   Decrypt
7. 7
   IndustryCatch-up

   PredictIt eliminates withdrawal fees, moves to profit-only fee model

   PredictIt announced September 23 that it is dropping its 5% withdrawal fee and offering one fee-free credit card deposit up to $1,000 per user, moving to a structure where traders pay fees only on realized profit. Co-founder John Aristotle Phillips framed the change as lowering barriers to participation as the platform competes for retail volume against better-capitalized rivals Kalshi and Polymarket. The move is a pricing response rather than a regulatory one, coming as PredictIt continues to operate under its long-standing CFTC no-action relief rather than a DCM license.

   GlobeNewswire